Bitcoin nieuws

Plan B’s aktie-til-strøm-prismodel fordømt af Vitalik Buterin, siger, at model kan være ‘skadelig’ – Bitcoin News


Plan B's Stock-to-Flow-prismodel fordømt af Vitalik Buterin, siger, at model kan være 'skadelig'


I et par år nu er den pseudonyme skaber af den populære stock-to-flow (S2F) bitcoin prismodel, Plan B, blevet en meget kendt bitcoin influencer, der samler 1,8 millioner Twitter-følgere. Men efter at S2F-prismodellen ikke blev til noget og faldt et godt stykke under prismålene i 2022, er Plan B og hans prismodel blevet kritiseret en del. Tirsdag fordømte Ethereums medstifter Vitalik Buterin S2F-prismodellen og sagde, at “finansielle modeller, der giver folk en falsk følelse af sikkerhed” kan være “skadelige”, og de fortjener at blive hånet.

Plan B’s Stock-to-Flow Bitcoin-prismodel er ikke så populær som den engang var

A few specific price models have been mocked this week as people have noticed that bitcoin’s price has not followed the “Rainbow” price indicator and Plan B’s famous stock-to-flow price model. The pseudonymous creator of the S2F model caught the attention of the crypto community years ago on March 22, 2019, when he published an editorial called “Modeling Bitcoin’s Value with Scarcity.” When things got bullish in late 2020 and into 2021, Plan B’s statements and price model were revered and at times, the analyst’s predictions were on point.


In January 2021, bitcoin’s (BTC) USD value was seemingly following the S2F model and at the time Plan B said: “bitcoin stock-to-flow model [is] on track… like clockwork.” Toward the end of June 2021, Plan B gave an update on his “worst case scenario for 2021.” The analyst said: “Bitcoin is below $34K, triggered by Elon Musk’s energy FUD and China’s mining crack down. There is also a more fundamental reason that we see weakness in June, and possibly July. My worst case scenario for 2021 (price/on-chain based): Aug>47K, Sep>43K, Oct>63K, Nov>98K, Dec>135K.”


Prediction is hard, especially the future. EMH even says predicting financial markets is impossible. For who is still interested in models, here are 5 BTC valuation models:
– Time (log regression, rainbow) and S2F too high
– UTXO/TX too low
– Difficulty/Mining_cost currently best pic.twitter.com/9FYCbWmbp7


— PlanB (@100trillionUSD) June 21, 2022


After publishing his “worst case scenario” predictions, August, September, and October seemingly reached the targets Plan B forecasted. However, while BTC hit an all-time high at $69K per unit on November 10, it did not make it near the $98K range and December was not even close. Fast forward to the end of 2022’s first quarter and BTC’s price continued to slide lower, and presently, the leading crypto asset’s price compared to the S2F chart is way off the radar. Plan B and his price model have been criticized in the past and by well known BTC advocates. For instance, the owner of Upstream Data, Steve Barbour, once tweeted:


The S2F model is the used car salesman approach to memeing bitcoin to the moon.

Buterin siger: ‘Stock-to-Flow ser virkelig ikke godt ud nu’

I nyere tid er Plan B’s model blevet hånet og latterliggjort mere indædt. Ethereum-advokaten Anthony Sassano tweetede om S2F-modellen og Plan B’s forudsigelser. “Stock to flow-modellen er så stor en fiasko, at Plan B bare burde slette hans konto,” sagde Sassano. “Det vil han dog ikke, fordi han desværre stadig har 1,8 millioner følgere, som spiser alt hans hopium-affald op på daglig basis.” Tweetet fik derefter opmærksomheden fra Ethereum-medstifteren Vitalik Buterin, som også kommenterede emnet.


“Stock-to-flow ser virkelig ikke godt ud nu,” sagde Buterin ved at retweete Sassanos udtalelse. “Jeg ved godt, at det er uhøfligt at glæde sig over og alt det der, men jeg synes, at finansielle modeller, der giver folk en falsk følelse af sikkerhed og forudbestemmelse om, at antallet vil gå op, er skadelige og fortjener al den hån, de får. Husk, hvem der støttede S2F, og hvem der hånede det selv tilbage, da det så ud til, at det nøjagtigt beskrev trendlinjen,” tilføjede Ethereum-medstifteren .

Plan B reagerer, analytikers fans fortæller ham at “blive ved med at skrive – jeg nyder det perspektiv, du bringer”

Plan B reagerede på Buterins udtalelse ved at retweete hans tweet tirsdag med en vis kritik over for “mislykkede projekter.”


“After a crash, some people are looking for scapegoats for their failed projects or wrong investment decisions,” Plan B said. “Not only newbies but [also] ‘leaders’ fall victim to blaming others and playing the victim. Remember those who blame others and those who stand strong after a crash.” Plan B also retweeted an individual who wrote that “Ethereum’s ‘ultrasound’ tokenomics are entirely based on S2F.” Plan B also explained later in the day that he shares his analysis and charts free of charge.


“So I share my analysis and charts FOR FREE,” Plan B wrote on Tuesday. “Never told anybody to buy or what/when/how/howmuch to buy. Now covid, China ban, Russia war and inflation tank all assets including bitcoin… and somehow some weeners blame their investment decisions on me? Lame.”


She’s a 10 but according to PlanB


— cryptograffiti (@cryptograffiti) June 21, 2022


Som nævnt ovenfor er S2F blevet målrettet for at være forkert, men “Rainbow” prisindikatoren er også blevet hånet i løbet af de sidste to uger. På en lignende måde har Rainbow-diagrammet ikke indeholdt BTCs pris, men nogle mennesker sagde, at de kunne tilføje et par ekstra linjer lilla for at få diagrammet til at fungere igen. “Jeg har skabt en ny og forbedret model til regnbuediagrammet,” tweetede Twitter-kontoen @Levelsdennis .


I mellemtiden sympatiserede en række bitcoinere med Plan B og bad ham fortsætte sit arbejde. “Ja. Bliv ved med at skrive – jeg nyder det perspektiv, du bringer,” fortalte den populære Twitter-konto med 1 million følgere og døbt @BTC_archive til den pseudonyme analytiker.

Tags i denne historie

analyst, Anthony Sassano, Bitcoin, Bitcoin Price, BTC advocates, BTC’s price, Ethereum, Ethereum advocate, Ethereum Co-Founder, Ethereum Vitalik Buterin, Forecasts, hopium garbage, Plan B, Plan B S2F, Predictions, pseudonymous creator, statements, Steve Barbour, stock-to-flow, stock-to-flow (S2F), Twitter, ultralyds tokenomics , Vitalik Buterin , worst case scenario


Hvad synes du om den seneste kritik af Plan B’s stock-to-flow bitcoin prismodel? Fortæl os, hvad du synes om dette emne i kommentarfeltet nedenfor.


Jamie Redman

Jamie Redman er nyhedschef hos Bitcoin.com News og en finansteknisk journalist, der bor i Florida. Redman har været et aktivt medlem af cryptocurrency-fællesskabet siden 2011. Han har en passion for Bitcoin, open source-kode og decentraliserede applikationer. Siden september 2015 har Redman skrevet mere end 5.000 artikler til Bitcoin.com News om de forstyrrende protokoller, der dukker op i dag.


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Forudsigelse er svær, især fremtiden. EMH siger endda, at det er umuligt at forudsige finansielle markeder. For hvem der stadig er interesseret i modeller, her er 5 BTC værdiansættelsesmodeller:
– Tid (log regression, regnbue) og S2F for høj
– UTXO/TX for lav
– Sværhedsgrad/Mine_omkostninger i øjeblikket bedste pic.twitter.com/9FYCbWmbp7

Source: https://news.bitcoin.com/plan-bs-stock-to-flow-price-model-denounced-by-vitalik-buterin-says-model-can-be-harmful/

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