Bitcoin nieuws

‘Bitcoin går til månen’, da Fed er tvunget til at holde pause efter renteforhøjelser – milliardær kryptoinvestor Novogratz

(Kitco News) På trods af, at markederne forbereder sig på en aggressiv Federal Reserve i første halvdel af dette år, bliver den amerikanske centralbank sandsynligvis nødt til at holde pause, når den amerikanske økonomi bremser. Det er her, Bitcoin vil gå “til månen,” sagde Galaxy Digital-grundlægger Mike Novogratz.

Kommentarerne blev fremsat under Bitcoin 2022-konferencen, der fandt sted i Miami.

Novogratz forventer en renteforhøjelse på 50 basispoint fra Fed, så snart formand Jerome Powell forbliver “meget høgeagtig i et stykke tid” under sin kamp mod fire årtiers høje inflation. Ifølge CME FedWatch Tool ser markedsdeltagere en 76,6 % chance for en stigning på et halvt point på mødet i maj.

Mange, inklusive Goldman Sachs , forventer også en ny stigning på 50 basispunkter ved mødet i juni.

“We now forecast 50bp hikes at both the May and June meetings, followed by 25bp hikes at the four remaining meetings in the back half of 2022 and three quarterly hikes in 2023Q1-Q3,” Goldman economists said in March.

This is quite an aggressive stance, especially with Powell indicating that the U.S. economy could handle tighter monetary policy. However, the big fear markets have is how much the U.S. economy will suffer as the Fed raises rates.

Deutsche Bank warned this week that the U.S. will experience a “major hit” in 2023 and 2024 as the Federal Reserve slows growth prospects with its aggressive tightening plan.

“The U.S. economy is expected to take a major hit from the extra Fed tightening by late next year and early 2024,” the economists said. “We see two negative quarters of growth and a more than 1.5% pt rise in the U.S. unemployment rate, developments that clearly qualify as a recession, albeit a moderate one.”

And once the Fed is forced to pause due to slower economic growth, “Bitcoin goes to the moon,” Novogratz said during his fireside chat on Wednesday. “We’ll have an industrial recession maybe, but the jury is out on how quickly it slows,” he added.

Bitcoin’s eventual long-term price target is $500k and $1 million, according to Novogratz.

“I go to bed, and I pray that the stewards of the U.S. economy don’t screw it up,” he said. “And so I really do pray that the dollar is going to be strong and it doesn’t go to infinity because Bitcoin going to infinity means the rest of the Western world has really fallen apart.”

During the first quarter of the year, Bitcoin has been mirroring the performance of U.S. stocks as investors react to changing risk-on/risk-off sentiment due to increased geopolitical uncertainty following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

However, Novogratz added that Bitcoin could be sending some decoupling signals. He explained that Bitcoin’s purpose is to preserve wealth. “Traditionally, when countries had horrible stewardship and started having hyperinflation, people would find U.S. dollars and put them into their pillowcases. We are moving to a digital world. You are going to see stablecoins and Bitcoin as part of that,” he said.

As 25,000 attendees flocked to Miami for the annual Bitcoin event, the world’s largest cryptocurrency was down nearly 4% on the day and last trading at $43,984.

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