Опубликовано: 23 мая 2020 г.
BITCOIN TODAY: In this video, I’ll go through the Bitcoin news today & I’ll make a Bitcoin price analysis. The BTC news & analysis can be inspiration for your own Bitcoin trading or investing, but is NOT financial advice. On this channel, The Moon, I make 1 video every single day about crypto news & Bitcoin. I’ll always include professional Bitcoin technical analysis, to make a Bitcoin price prediction, and I’ll also show you the most relevant news for Bitcoin investing & trading. Please subscribe if you are a Bitcoin hodler, and leave a thumbs up to support my free videos!
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Carl Eric Martin (The Moon)
Bitcoin’s Shocking Energy Consumption
When it comes to thinking about which economic sectors and industry niches that consume the most energy, cryptocurrencies may not immediately come to mind. But for some of these crypto companies, their energy and carbon footprints are not just considerable, they’re massive. The most famous example, Bitcoin, has an annual energy footprint slightly larger than the entire nation of Switzerland. The company’s current energy consumption can be tracked here.
Last year, the University of Cambridge created an online tool that allows users to compare the boggling energy consumption of Bitcoin to other entities. At the time that this platform debuted, the tool estimated that “Bitcoin is using around seven gigawatts of electricity, equal to 0.21% of the world’s supply,” according to a BBC report. This shocking figure translates to “as much power as would be generated by seven Dungeness nuclear power plants at once.”
How can one company that doesn’t even produce a tangible product consume so much energy? It has to do with the process of “mining” bitcoin, in which “computers known as mining machines are connected to the crypto-currency network.” These machines have to do complex computational work to verify Bitcoin transactions that are made extra secure but also extra labor-intensive by blockchain technology. “To make as much money from this process as possible, people often connect large numbers of miners to the network – even entire warehouses full of them,” writes the BBC. “That uses lots of electricity because the miners are more or less constantly working.”
According to Carter, these essentials are, in a nutshell, “to understand is that energy is not globally fungible,” to avoid falsely equating energy footprint with carbon footprint, and the promising “changing nature of Bitcoin security spend.” By addressing these points, he says that we can finally put the Bitcoin energy debate to bed and mine with a clear conscience.
While some critics of Bitcoin’s massive energy consumption have wondered aloud whether Bitcoin may be driving up energy prices with its high demand or “presume that someone, somewhere is being deprived of electricity because of this rapacious asset,” research by the Cambridge Center for Alternative Finance has shown that the location of these Bitcoin mining centers (which are mostly in China, with hotspots including Xinjiang, Sichuan and Inner Mongolia) are in places that have energy and grid capacity to spare, argues Carter. In fact, he contends that this energy, if not used for Bitcoin, would otherwise have gone to more environmentally harmful industries or have gone to waste. “Part of the reason Bitcoin consumes so much electricity is because China lowered the clearing price of energy by overbuilding hydro capacity due to sloppy central planning,” Carter finger-points. “In a non-Bitcoin world, this excess energy would either have been used to smelt aluminum or would simply have been wasted.” While this may be a bit of an exaggeration to pin the entirety of a private company’s energy usage on China and “poor planning”, there is certainly truth to the argument that many energy-sucking industries are a lot dirtier than cryptocurrency mining.
And then there are what Carter refers to as Bitcoin’s “silver linings.” “If Bitcoin ends up being worth substantially more in the future than it is worth today (say, by an order of magnitude), then the world will actually have received a discount on its issuance. The energy-externality of pulling those Bitcoins out of the mathematical ether will actually have been very low, due to the historical contingency of when, price-wise, those Bitcoins were actually mined,” Carter writes. In layman’s terms, this means that “Bitcoin’s energy expenditure may end up looking rather cheap in the final analysis. Coins only need to be issued once. And it’s better for the planet that they be issued when the coin price was low, and the electricity expended to extract them was commensurately low.”
By Haley Zaremba via Safehaven.com
More Top Reads From Oilprice.com:
- Downside Risks Remain Despite Oil Price Rebound
- Europe Set To Unveil Its $500 Billion ‘Green Deal’
- U.S. Shale Scrambles To Innovate Its Way Out Of Crisis
Author: Haley Zaremba
The latest BTC News From Bybit (23rd May, 2020)
With the recent Bitcoin halving, it’s been an incredibly exciting few weeks for the world’s most popular cryptocurrency. Bybit looks at some of the most eye-catching recent developments.
Bitcoin remains stable post-halving
Despite some predictions to the contrary, the price of Bitcoin has been largely on a upward trajectory since the Bitcoin halving. Between the date of the halving (May 13) and May 21, the price rose by around 16%. On May 21, prices fell by around nearly 5%, fuelled by the speculation of the rumoured Satoshi sell-off, as explored in our recent Bybit Insight article. Despite this drop, prices are still up on what they were as the halving took place.
The hash rate has dropped over 25%, but this was largely anticipated post-halving. Speaking to the The Block Crypto, Poolin Vice President Alejandro De La Torre said this is an indication of some miners turning off their now outdated equipment after the halving. De La Torre estimated that as many as 30% of miners had turned off their machines, but that in the coming weeks, the upcoming wet season in China’s Sichuan province, one of the world epicenters for Bitcoin mining, would “undoubtedly push up the hashrate in the short to mid term.”
Also, although transaction fees have risen, this is not a cause for alarm, according to Mark D’Aria, the CEO of crypto consulting firm Bitpro. D’Aria told the Coin Telegraph “they are nowhere near their peak in 2017 and sit at about the range of the mid-2019 rally or the early days of the 2017 bubble.”
Elon Musk explains Bitcoin to J.K. Rowling
That’s a headline that you thought you’d never see, but it’s exactly what happened on May 15 when Harry Potter author J.K. Rowling caused massive ripples in the crypto community by tweeting: “I don’t understand bitcoin. Please explain it to me.” After a flood of responses, Rowling issued a follow up tweet, still seemingly confused, to which Tesla CEO Elon Musk responded to:
Pretty much, although massive currency issuance by govt central banks is making Bitcoin Internet 👻 money look solid by comparison
A solid response by Musk!
Crypto community celebrates 10th anniversary of Bitcoin Pizza day
The crypto community on May 22 celebrated the 10th anniversary of Bitcoin Pizza day…by doing the obvious thing.
I spent $40 on pizzas … because the $45Million was a little out of my price range.
(Yes there are pineapples on it, and your opinion on that is irrelevant.)
Happy #BitcoinPizzaDay 🍕🧡
Cheers to more holidays that are iconic as well as hard to explain to our loved ones 🍻 pic.twitter.com/tedrcCdz11
For those who don’t know, this marks the occasion when on May 22, 2010, a Florida man named Laszlo Hanyecz decided he wanted a free lunch. He proceeded therefore to pay for 2 pizzas with 10,000 Bitcoins (worth around $90,000,000 as of the time of writing!). It may seem silly to call it a free lunch, but at the time Bitcoin was essentially worthless, and as explained in an interview with Forbes, the transaction paved the way for a ‘more efficient way of Bitcoin.’
Owning 10 BTC puts you in the top 0.5% of all addresses
Owning between 10 and 100 BTC would put you in the top 0.51% of all 30.4 million Bitcoin addresses, according to data from BitInfoCharts.
The data makes for fascinating reading, and also reveals that 97.3% of all Bitcoin wallets in existence hold under 1 BTC. If your wallet was to hold between 1 and 10 BTC, it would be in the top 2.68%.
The ‘Bitcoin rich list’ reveals the top 100 richest Bitcoin addresses, with the top address holding 255,502 BTC, worth over $2.3 billion at the time of writing (May 23, 2020).
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May 23, 2020
7 Main Post-Halving Bitcoin Narratives
The third Bitcoin (BTC) halving has finally happened, hashrate dropped less than estimated, fees skyrocketed, but, contrary to the doom mongers, the bitcoin price hasn’t fallen.
What happens next? What will become the next talk of the town as the “priced in/not priced in” debate has now disappeared together with 50% of the block subsidy on May 11?
According to industry figures interviewed by Cryptonews.com, a number of key narratives and trends are likely to dominate Bitcoin’s fate over the coming 12 months.
From bitcoin’s increasing attractiveness as a store of value in times of economic crisis to growing regulation, all of these narratives could ultimately make BTC more mainstream and more accessible to a wider pool of investors.
Jay Hao, CEO of major crypto exchange OKEx, tells Cryptonews.com that the ongoing coronavirus crisis may place sell-off pressure on bitcoin in the short-term. That said, he expects the narrative of Bitcoin as ‘digital gold’ to grow in stature beyond the immediate aftermath of the halving.
“However, the macro context looks bullish for Bitcoin in the mid-to longer term,” he says.
“As people begin to question the value of ‘helicopter money’ and the effect that unchecked inflation of money supply has, BTC has just done the exact opposite … I think a big trend we will see this year is Bitcoin further strengthening its status as digital gold.”
Binance Research agrees with this analysis.
“Now, every time a major central bank will print money … the original Bitcoin ethos is likely to gain new traction,” a spokesperson tells Cryptonews.com. “The original Bitcoin narrative is likely to reemerge or be reinforced: Bitcoin as a store of value, as digital gold.”
As a result of Bitcoin’s growing deflationary stature, analysts are expecting another key post-Bitcoin halving narrative to emerge: an increase in institutional investors.
“We will also see more institutional investors coming on board now that they see BTC as a hedge,” says Jay Hao. “We’re already seeing some very bullish signs for the market like famous macro investor Paul Tudor Jones adding BTC to his public fund portfolio as a hedge.”
Hao reminds that investment banking giant JPMorgan has also recently opened accounts for crypto-exchanges Coinbase and Gemini.
In his view, this “will certainly open up the gates for more exchanges and more big banks globally.”
On top of this, Hao expects to see the “BTC derivatives market continue to grow and become exponentially bigger, perhaps even three or four times bigger than the spot in the next 12 months.” (Learn more: Crypto Derivatives Market Might be ‘Double the Size’ of Spot Market in 2020)
However, not everyone thinks that the current economic conditions are ripe for a steady growth in institutional investment. Also speaking to Cryptonews.com, ThinkMarkets analyst Fawad Razaqzada believes there’s a risk BTC may correct itself in the coming months.
“Unemployment has skyrocketed across the globe and companies are filing for bankruptcies left right and centre,” he says.
“And while central banks and governments are doing all they can to address the supply side of the economy, demand from households and businesses could nonetheless remain soft for a long time which could undermine economic recovery.”
Against this fundamental backdrop, Razaqzada suspects that bitcoin investors may take advantage of higher prices to book profit, while others may be deterred by the volatile economic circumstances. As such, the narrative could be one of frustrated potential.
Learn more: This Crisis Is Good For Bitcoin, But Beware of Recession – Luno CEO
Another less prominent – and longer-term – narrative will relate to Bitcoin scaling. As Ethereum (ETH) eventually transitions to the proof-of-stake (PoS) Ethereum 2.0, analysts are expecting such developments to put extra pressure on Bitcoin to develop its own scaling solutions, as well as more ecological mining methods.
Jay Hao says, “Bitcoin has scalability issues, but there are many protocols being worked on such as the Lightning Network and Liquid sidechain. I think the challenges for Bitcoin and other [proof-of-work] coins are to find more energy-efficient ways of mining with more sophisticated equipment, green energy, and cloud solutions moving forward.”
Likewise, Binance Research’s spokesperson doesn’t expect Bitcoin to be swayed too much by Ethereum’s shift to PoS.
However, this might change in the long term, “as Bitcoin is indeed facing foreseeable and inherent problems.”
Learn more: Bitcoiners May Change Their Mind on PoS, ‘Who Knows,’ Says Buterin
Basically, Binance Research foresees that one longer-term narrative for Bitcoin will relate to how it solves the problem of diminishing block rewards. While some analysts believe that Bitcoin will have to fundamentally reform itself to overcome this challenge, Binance Research believes that “non-custodial off-chain solutions, such as the Lightning Network, could avoid the necessity to choose between … compromises.”
Learn more: Attempts to Increase Bitcoin’s Supply Would End Up With Another “Bitcoin”
Lastly, tightening regulation is likely to be another Bitcoin narrative in the coming months and years, particularly as Facebook’s Libra forces regulators to sit up and take notice of cryptocurrencies.
“The organization behind the FATF, the Financial Stability Board, urged countries to adopt and enforce local variants of the FATF’s recommendation before Libra was to launch,” explains Binance Research’s spokesperson. “So yes, the arrival of Libra very likely fast-tracked regulations that are not only applicable to stablecoins but to crypto-assets more generally.”
More generally, Jay Hao expects that Libra and central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) will, in the end, divert more attention towards Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies.
Author: By Simon Chandler
Crypto Tidbits: Satoshi Isn’t Dumping His Bitcoin, China ‘Bans’ Cryptocurrency Mining
Another week, another round of Crypto Tidbits. Bitcoin has seen quite the tumultuous week.
After rallying towards $10,000 at the start of the week on the back of post-halving buying, seemingly caused by both retail and institutional players, Bitcoin plunged to $8,800 over the course of two days. Altcoins posted similar losses, with some underperforming the market leader and others outperforming BTC.
Chart (heat map) of the performance of top cryptocurrencies from Coin360. Current as of May 22nd.
The drop coincided with rumors that Satoshi Nakamoto — the founder of the flagship cryptocurrency — was dumping his coins on the open market after a transaction was sent from an address created one month after Bitcoin was launched. This rumor has since been disproven by blockchain data.
In spite of the drop, analysts are still fundamentally long-term bullish on Bitcoin.
As reported by NewsBTC previously, blockchain analytics company Glassnode noted on May 18th that the Puell Multiple — the USD value of BTC issued per day over the one-year moving average of the same metric — reached a crucial level.
Chart of Bitcoin’s Puell Multiple (on a macro scale) from crypto analytics firm Glassnode
As the below chart indicates, whenever the multiple entered the green zone, it found a macro bottom.
This strong precedent suggests that BTC is nearing a post-halving bottom and is about to embark on its fourth long-term rally.
Tuur Demeester — founder of Adamant Capital — echoed the optimism in an interview published this week by Messari, a crypto research firm:
“I think a price target of like $50,000 is not insane at all, especially given just how crazy the money printing is. I would even say between $50,000-$100,000.”
- Bitcoin Bulls Roar After “60 Minutes” Segment: Last weekend, the world-famous show “60 Minutes’ on CBS ran a segment in which the Federal Reserve was highlighted. In an interview, the central bank’s chairman, Jerome Powell, said that the trillions of dollars the Federal Reserve has already pumped into the economy is far from the end of the potential stimulus: “There is a lot more we can do. We’re not out of ammunition by a long shot. No, there’s, there’s really no limit to what we can do with these lending programs that we have.” Bitcoin bulls were incredibly pleased by this news.
- No, Chinese Isn’t Banning Crypto Mining: Earlier this week, there was an uproar in the community because an image was leaked of a Chinese government transcript indicating that an agency wanted to ban crypto mining. Asian-centric blockchain and fintech news outlet PANews wrote in regards to the image: “The Financial Administrative of the Sichuan province of China has issued a notice to its subordinate offices ordering them to ‘guide [Bitcoin and crypto] mining entities to end their mining activities in an orderly manner’.” While many took this as a sign that the country was banning Bitcoin mining yet again, Chinese crypto insiders confirmed that this is not the case. Matthew Graham of fund Sino Global Capital said:
“China is not banning mining, it’s complicated as usual, messages frequently conflict especially at local or regional level. Actual message is basically ‘don’t use local government support for mining to illegally raise money’. Thank you,” Graham wrote, trying to dissuade the fears of a Chinese crackdown on crypto assets such as Bitcoin.
- Iran Pushes a National Crypto Mining Strategy: In a similar vein of news, Iranian President Hassan Rouhani was reported this week to have told the Central Bank of Iran, the Department of Energy and Information, and other ministries that he wants a national cryptocurrency strategy implemented. The strategy will purportedly involve the regulation of private mining operations and the management of cryptocurrency mining revenues. Not much more was explained, but some speculate that this is Iran trying to garner Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies to bypass international sanctions.
- No, Satoshi Nakamoto Isn’t Dumping His Crypto: This week, blockchain analysis firms registered a suspicious transaction: an address created one month after Bitcoin’s birth moved 50 coins. Due to the proximity of the address’ age to the creation of the network, many thought it was Satoshi Nakamoto starting to sell his coins. Yet programmer Jimmy Song noted that this is unlikely the case, pointing to blockchain data indicating that this was just an early miner, not the creator of Bitcoin.
Author: Nick Chong