Bitcoin continues to consolidate: Crucial price levels to watch

Bitcoin continues to consolidate: Crucial price levels to watch
  • The Bitcoin price is currently in a consolidation phase in the $11,100 – 11,900 trading range.
  • A break in the respective price level could trigger a larger price movement, while analysts expecting a longer-lasting consolidation phase

After the strong upward movement from around USD 9,000 (end of July) to up to USD 12,500 (mid-August), Bitcoin is still in a consolidation phase. Over the past weekend, the price has largely trended sideways. At the time of writing, BTC was trading at USD 11,770, with a slight gain of 1.2% within the last 24 hours.

After the strong upward movement from around USD 9,000 (end of July) to up to USD 12,500 (mid-August), Bitcoin is still in a consolidation phase. Over the past weekend, the price has largely trended sideways. At the time of writing, BTC was trading at USD 11,770, with a slight gain of 1.2% within the last 24 hours.

“Big Cheds” shared a Bitcoin chart analysis with his 80,000 Twitter a few hours ago, in which he noted that there is currently no fixed direction in which the Bitcoin price is headed. As the analyst noted, Bitcoin closed below the EMA8 (Exponential Moving Average of the last 8 days) on the daily chart, but BTC is also currently charting a series of higher lows, which still show a reasonable degree of bullish sentiment.

The analyst also stressed that Bitcoin is trading above the important level of $10,500 after the rapid rise in recent weeks, which is another reason to be bullish. However, there were some initial rejections in the low $12,000 zone, so it is not clear at this point how things will continue. Big Cheds is therefore currently watching the low time frames:

So really looking out for lower time frames, watching on the 1-hour chart, several moving averages, we do have the 8-EMA as well as the 34-EMA […] [they]did a bull cross several hours earlier today with a little bit of fall through.[…] What will be key in this lower time frame analysis will be to recapture this lower key right around $11,750, if we can break that I think there is a good chance that we will go back to $11,9k.

If this level is breached, Big Cheds said, the next steps would be to challenge the August 17th high of just under $12,500. At the same time, the analyst also warns keeping an eye on the higher lows on the daily chart.

If we lose support, if we break below that $11,370 zone I think it is a good bet we are even casting lower, maybe $10,6k to $11k, so keep an eye on that key support.

Many analysts currently share a similar view to Big Cheds’ that Bitcoin could consolidate in the current trading range in the coming days, perhaps even weeks. For example, analyst “Mayne” shared the chart below via Twitter, explaining that Bitcoin has formed the same bearish divergence against the Relative Strength Index on the daily chart as it has recently consolidated after the May highs.

RSI Divergence peeps, what are your thoughts on the big daily bear div on Bitcoin? I don’t use RSI but looks like we had a bear div during the last consolidation as well.

btc chart mayne


In one of his follow-up tweets, the analyst also added that he is watching the level between $10,900 and $11,100. Should this be lost, the Bitcoin price could crash to the level between USD 10,500 and USD 9,600.

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Author: Published 14 hours ago

Why Bitcoin Is Entering “Slightly Dangerous” Territory After Rally to $12k

Why Bitcoin Is Entering “Slightly Dangerous” Territory After Rally to $12k

  • Bitcoin has begun to trend higher over the past few days after a drop towards $11,000.
  • As of this article’s writing, BTC trades for $11,900, trading slightly below Friday’s high of $12,000.
  • Bitcoin is up around 0.54% in the past 24 hours, outperforming a number of altcoins.
  • Despite the strength BTC is seeing, not everyone is convinced that the asset is in a bullish state.
  • One analyst cites the potential rising wedge forming. A rising wedge is a textbook market structure seen prior to price corrections.
  • Bitcoin has pressed higher over the past few days after flirting with breaking below $11,000. The leading cryptocurrency trades at $11,900 as of this article’s writing, up around 0.5% in the past 24 hours.

    Despite the bounce from the weekly lows around $11,100, not all analysts are convinced of positive sentiment.

    A trader shared the chart below on August 14th, noting that Bitcoin’s previously-bullish “ascending triangle” pattern may be slowly converting into a “bearish rising wedge.” A rising wedge is a chart formation that often precedes strong corrections to the downside.

    The potential rising wedge forming, along with bearish divergences that have formed between Bitcoin’s price action the RSI and MACD, suggests a reversal is possible:

    “The bullish ascending triangle (preceded by a rising trend, which is good) started to look like a bearish rising wedge. Together with extended bearish (potentially exaggerated) divergencies the situation becomes slightly dangerous for bulls.”


    This analysis was published shortly after the same trader noted that Bitcoin’s “Fear and Greed Index” is reaching levels of “Extreme Greed.” The fear and greed index, which attempts to gauge investor sentiment, is calculated by volume, social media sentiment, price action, and other trends.

    Despite this short-term skepticism, many remain convinced that Bitcoin’s macro uptrend is intact due to fundamental trends.

    Raoul Pal, a former head of Goldman Sachs’ hedge fund sales division and the CEO of Real Vision, recently remarked that Bitcoin is likely the best trade in the world right now:

    “In fact, only one asset has offset the growth of the G4 balance sheet. Its not stocks, not bonds, not commodities, not credit, not precious metals, not miners. Only one asset massively outperformed over almost any time horizon: Yup, Bitcoin. My conviction levels in bitcoin rise every day. Im already irresponsibly long. I am now thinking it may not be even worth owning any other asset as a long-term asset allocation, but that’s a story for another day (I’m still thinking through this).”

    Echoing this line is the former CEO of Prudential, George Ball. The now-CEO of Sanders Morris Harris said in an interview with Reuters that he thinks Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies will become a safe-haven asset in this market cycle.


    by admin

    Why Bitcoin Is Entering “Slightly Dangerous” Territory After Rally to $12k

    Bitcoin Miner Layer1 Overstated Industry Vet’s Involvement in $50M Series A Pitch

    Layer1, the U.S. bitcoin mining startup backed by high-profile investors, has misdescribed the role of a supposed core team member in a recent pitch deck, according to that team member.

    Further, in the equity structure slide, the deck described Liu as a founding member of the firm with an ownership stake.

    Related: Marathon Brings New Bitcoin Mining Rigs Online, Sees Itself Becoming Cash-Flow Positive

    However, when reached for comment, Liu said he is not involved in Layer1’s business. “I introduced some of my friends to them. … That did help them when they [came] to China. But I’m not a shareholder [and do] not work for them,” Liu said via WeChat messages. 

    The U.S. startup boasts a mission of not just building top-notch bitcoin mining facilities but also launching the U.S’s first proprietary mining chips to compete with Chinese miner makers.

    Although the pitch deck does not specify a date, it includes a roadmap that suggests the deck is recent as of June of this year. According to the roadmap, Layer1’s Step 4 – a 25 megawatt-hour (mWh) bitcoin mining farm at its Texas site – was up and running as of June, as featured in a Forbes article in late May. 

    Related: Riot Supercharges Mining Ops With 8,000 More Bitmain Rigs as Bitcoin Price Soars

    “I can confirm that the information you’ve received is correct, however there is a disconnect with regards to Liu Xiangfu’s involvement with Layer1. Xiangfu has been a good friend, and supportive of the company since the very beginning. It should be no surprise to anyone who follows our business to see Xiangfu’s name connected with Layer1.”

    In addition, the management team slide also claims Layer1’s chief technology officer, Ivan Kirillov, was a former lead engineer for four years at cloud mining firm Genesis Mining. 

    Also notable in this recent pitch deck is that it says Layer1 was still raising $50 million in Series A financing, which will be used to scale its operating mining capacity in West Texas to 150 mWh and to deliver its proprietary mining chips in mass production.

    CoinDesk reported on Oct. 15, 2019, that Layer1 raised $30 million in the Series A round and had not yet reached its $50 million target.

    Layer1’s own blog post published on the same date didn’t indicate how much it actually raised at the time and only said it had notable investors like Thiel and Shasta Ventures, at a valuation of $200 million.  

    But it appears only a relatively small part of the raised fund came from external investors at the time, as the recent pitch deck shows that “Layer1 founders have contributed over $23 million of [their] own capital so far to this Series A financing.”

    Nonetheless, several business outlets, including Fortune and the Wall Street Journal, reported on Oct. 15 that Layer1 announced it raised $50 million in the Series A round. Forbes reported the same a few days later.

    Liegl confirmed in a follow-up email response on Aug. 21 that Layer1 had not been raising a second round of Series A in recent months, but was trying to complete the previous round.

    In a private Zoom call in April, Layer1 was offering shares worth $41 million to investors on the BnkToTheFuture crowdfunding platform, according to a live stream of the call.

    In fact, Layer1’s profile page on BnkToTheFuture also shows it listed Liu as a team member in charge of supply chain when pitching to investors. 

    Jakov Dolic, Layer1’s then-president, who was also on the April call, described Liu’s role as “a team member and a friend.” Dolic left the firm in recent months but remains a shareholder.

    When asked during the call, Liegl told investors on BnkToTheFuture the offering was the same round as the previous Series A financing with the same terms. 

    Data from BnkToTheFuture shows Layer1 collected $41 million on the crowdfunding platform. And Liegl said in the Aug. 21 response that Layer1’s $50 million Series A is now complete.

    One of Layer1’s missions is to take on Chinese bitcoin miner manufacturers and roll out the U.S’s first proprietary mining chips. Currently, almost the entire bitcoin miner manufacturing market is dominated by Chinese firms including Bitmain, Canaan, MicroBT and InnoSilicon. 

    Liu’s experience as one of the co-founders of Canaan in 2013, which is reported to have over 20% of the mining manufacturing market share, could have boosted Layer1’s expertise on that front. 

    As Layer1 promoted in its pitch deck, its management team has the experience of having produced mining hardware “with a global market share of 14%.” Without Liu, it would be questionable whether that is still the case.

    But Layer1 is adopting a different model from the one taken by companies such as Bitmain or Canaan.

    All major bitcoin miner makers in China are essentially fabless manufacturers, meaning they have in-house staff to design application-specific integrated circuit (ASIC) chips for the Bitcoin system’s SHA-256 algorithm.

    But they don’t actually make the chips. Instead, they outsource from semiconductor foundries such as Samsung Foundry or TSMC, which fabricate the wafer silicon that can be customized into ASIC chips.

    Instead of designing the chips in-house, Layer1 said in the pitch deck it’s working with a fabless manufacturer in Beijing called Ingenic Semiconductor, which obtains wafers from Samsung Foundry in order to design and produce chips for Layer1.

    Layer1 touted in the deck that mining chips designed by Ingenic will be 10-nanometer (nm) chips with power consumption of 38 watt per terahash second (W/THs) of computing power. That would be as efficient as the most advanced equipment from Bitmain and MicroBT. 

    But according to Ingenic’s 2019 financial report published on the Shanghai Stock Exchange earlier this year, its main product lines currently focus on 28- and 22-nm chips.

    In the email response on Aug. 21, Layer1 said Ingenic aims to start a full mask tape-out starting in December 2020, which is a process of ordering wafers to run a full test of the chips’ designed efficiency before mass production. 

    In the call with BnkToTheFuture investors, Liegl claimed Ingenic takes a minor stake in Layer1 so that his firm can get chips at cost without needing to pay a profit margin to Ingenic.

    The pitch deck shows that Layer1’s upcoming plan in November is to scale up its available power capacity by nearly seven times from 150 mWh to a whopping 1 gigawatt-hour (gWh). 

    According to the deck, Layer1 purchased a 150 mWh substation plus 30 acres of land in West Texas with self-funded capital last September. But as of June, it was fulfilling less than one-sixth (25 mWh) of that capacity by using Bitmain’s AntMiner S17s.

    Layer1 said in the deck that it plans to fulfill the remaining available capacity with its custom mining chips following mass production.

    If a mining facility can run at a full capacity of 150 mWh using bitcoin miners with the claimed 38 W/THs efficiency, then the site would be able to have around 40 million TH/s of computing power, or about 3% of the Bitcoin network’s total.

    Based on U.S. mining pool Luxor’s bitcoin hashrate index, this amount of computing power alone would be worth about $100 million.

    But this plan also faces roadblocks as Layer1 may have to first deal with a legal case that could create uncertainties for its mining operations’ efficiency. A data center power management firm in the U.S. is currently suing Layer1 over patent infringement. 

    In the Forbes article in May, Layer1 claimed that by using the so-called “demand-response” technology, it can reduce the electricity cost for its bitcoin mining operations to as low as $0.01 per kilowatt-hour. 

    That would be a major selling point of Layer1’s mining facility because the mining industry’s average cost is around $0.05 per kilowatt-hour.

    However, Lancium, the plaintiff, said it has patented such technology in March of this year and alleged Layer1’s usage of this model violated its patent.

    • Bitcoin Miner Layer1 Overstated Industry Vet’s Involvement in $50M Series A Pitch
    • Bitcoin Miner Layer1 Overstated Industry Vet’s Involvement in $50M Series A Pitch


    Author: Wolfie Zhao

    Weekly Recap: Bitcoin Above $11,500, Ethereum Above $380

    Weekly Recap: Bitcoin Above $11,500, Ethereum Above $380

    Bitcoin has not broken the uptrend, though, and is continuing its ascension. On Saturday, 22 August, Bitcoin slightly rebounded off the weekly support level at $11,574 thus keeping it intact. Despite falling sharply, Ethereum has not breached its daily $378 support level either, allowing us to consider the ETH uptrend still running on.

    Last week started for Bitcoin with a sharp surge on Monday in one 4-hour candlestick. Then the weekly high was made and the cryptocurrency began slowly slipping down henceforth. The first significant hurdle to that downslide was found on Wednesday, 19 August, when the price of Bitcoin reached the supporting trendline for Bitcoin’s local ascension move that began on 27 July.

    The market leader rebounded slightly off this trend line, reaching above the 50-period SMA on the 4-hour chart and daily level at $11,862. But the upside move was small and short-lived, as a result BTC/USD slumped below the supporting trendline on Friday, 21 August.

    On Friday, the pair finished below the $11,574 resistance level at $11,503, but rebounded back above it on Saturday. We thus may state that the fact the $11,574 resistance is keeping up Bitcoin’s upside trade, and the uptrend has not yet been reversed, judging by the graphic pattern formed. However, the dip below the 20-period and 50-period SMAs increases potential downside risks.

    View photos

    Ethereum started off this week with a moderately paced downside move that continued through Wednesday. There was a modest rebound on Thursday, however accompanied by a downside convergence of the 20-period SMA over the 50-perod SMA on the 4-hour chart. The pair was trending down until it almost touched the $370 daily support level on Friday. On Saturday and Sunday ETH/USD basically traded flat, staying above $390 most of the time.

    The week has been negatively marked for Ethereum by a failure on the testnet Medalla built for Ethereum 2.0 proof-of-work on 18 August. One of the six servers on which Medalla runs reported the time as being one day ahead of actual time. The system averaged out the time discrepancy by shifting the time on all servers by 4 hours ahead of the present. As a result, “validators incorrectly proposed blocks and attestations for future slots,” as per Prysmatic Labs’ official report. The glitch in the system took most of the network’s validators offline.

    On that day Raul Jordan – Prysmatic Labs’ editor – wrote in his blog that Prysmatic Labs believed, ‘this incident does not inherently affect the launch date.’ On August 19, the testnet was running again though not yet in a stable manner on a number of accounts. Still, the incident produced a notable effect on the trade of ETH/USD with the week’s biggest losses registered on the 18th and 19th August.

    View photos

    Bitcoin’s uptrend is under the threat of a downside reversal. The key support level of $11,574 is in the market’s focus. The space between the weekly support and the daily resistance levels is very small for a week’s time, and the price of the BTC/USD pair is unlikely to remain within its boundaries this week, however, there may be false breakthroughs that will ultimately let it stay within the corridor by the end of the week. Still, either a downside or upside exits are the more likely options.

    Bitcoin’s uptrend so far looks intact with the weekly resistance holding on. However, the continuation of the uptrend looks questionable. The most reasonable decision for position traders now would be to wait and see until the situation clears. As for the odds of the direction Bitcoin continues, the likelier option is up, given its position around the weekly $11,574 support level. Shorting Bitcoin in the current situation might be a higher risk move.

    For Ethereum, the situation also appears rather mixed. Approaching trading Ethereum versus dollar this week, one should closely monitor the news concerning Medalla testnet. The Ethereum 2.0 project is expected to increase the scalability of Ethereum and thus gives substantial fundamental input to its market valuation. However the project’s realisation will have the ultimate impact on the market’s reaction to it.

    Ethereum was in a downtrend through last week and slowed down its descent, nearing daily support. A further upside move looks a technically plausible option and a buying order at $380 may be not a bad option. Nevertheless any negative news may create a threat for this scenario. However, a mid-term short order for ETH/USD looks a much riskier option in the current situation.

    Konstantin Anissimov, Executive Director at CEX.IO

    This article was originally posted on FX Empire

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    Bitcoin, Ether, and XRP Weekly Market Update August 24, 2020

    Bitcoin, Ether, and XRP Weekly Market Update August 24, 2020

    The total crypto market cap lost $8.3 billion from its value for the last seven days and now stands at $365.6 billion. The top 10 currencies were all in red for the same period with ChainLink (LINK) and Bitcoin SV (BSV) being the worst performers with 17.2 and 11.9 percent of losses respectively. By the time of writing bitcoin (BTC) is trading at $11,700 while ether (ETH) moved up to $394. Ripple’s XRP recovered to $0.287.

    Bitcoin closed the trading session on Sunday, August 16 at $11,910 confirming the newly established weekly high. The coin was also 2.5 percent up on a weekly basis.

    On Monday, August 17, the BTC/USD pair formed a solid green candle to $12,300 on the daily chart and stormed pass the psychological horizontal resistance at $12,000. It added another 3.2 percent to its value as bulls were already looking at the zone below $14,000 as their next target.

    The trading day on Tuesday, however, was a wakeup call for them. The leading cryptocurrency dropped back to the sub-$12k area and erased all gains from the previous session. Still, the coin was trading above all major moving averages and the monthly and weekly support levels.

    The mid-week session on Wednesday saw bitcoin trading as low as $11,560 during intraday, just to recover in the evening closing with a small loss to $11,750. Bear pressure was increasing, but the general uptrend was still intact.

    On Thursday, August 20, the BTC/USD pair broke the local downtrend and successfully formed a small green candle up to $11,858.

    The Friday session, however, was not that positive for bulls and BTC suffered a hard drop right to the weekly support near $11,500, also moving below the short 26-day exponential moving average. This resulted in a 2.7 percent correction.

    The weekend of August 22-23 started with a continuation of the downward to $11,363 on Saturday morning before bitcoin was able to recover in the evening and register a small increase to $11,666.

    On Sunday, it once again re-tested the weekly support but was rejected there closing the day at $11,631.

    The 24-hour trading volumes increased to $25 billion for the first three days of the week compared to $19 billion on average for the previous week then slightly decreased on Thursday, remaining in the $20-$23 billion range until Saturday. On Sunday, August 23, they fell, even more, reaching $17 billion.

    The Ethereum Project token ETH was quite volatile on Sunday, August 16, and fell as low as $412 during intraday after peaking at $438 the previous day. Still, the leading altcoin closed the week at $434 with a 10 percent increase for the period.

    On Monday, the ETH/USD pair was trading in the wide range between $447-$421 before dropping to $430 at the end of the session.

    Then on Tuesday, August 18, the ether formed a big red candle and corrected its price down to $422.

    The move was followed by a third-consecutive red session on the daily chart and the coin continued to slide on Wednesday reaching $407. This resulted in a 3.6 percent pullback. Bears were even able to push the price all the way down to the lower end of the $400-$390 horizontal support.

    On Thursday, August 20, the ETH/USD pair climbed up to $416 breaking the short-term downtrend, but the zone between $430-$420 was now acting as resistance in front of bulls, and they were rejected at its lower boundary.

    The last day of the workweek came with a huge drop to $387 – the horizontal support was lost and the ETH dropped another 7 percent.

    The next target in front of bulls was to defend the weekly support and that is what they did on Saturday when the ether first hit $380 during intraday then rebounded and formed a small green candle to $396.

    On Sunday, it made another step down to $390, still gravitating around the horizontal support.

    The Ripple company token XRP moved up to $0.304 on Sunday, August 16, and closed the previous week 5.9 percent up. The coin remained stable and close to the $0.29 horizontal support and was now targeting the zone above $0.31.

    On Monday, August 17, the XRP/USD pair continued to impress and formed a green candle to $0.315, but not before hitting $0.328 during intraday, which corresponded to a 3.6 percent price increase.

    The trading session on Tuesday, however, was the beginning of a pullback for the major altcoin. It moved down to $0.302 after suffering a rejecting near the $0.32 level.

    The mid-week session on Wednesday found XRP sliding further down. It hit the 26-day EMA at $0.279 in the early hours of trading, but managed to partially recover in the evening hours and closed right at the $0.29 support. Still, the drop resulted in a 4 percent loss.

    On Thursday, August 20, bulls finally found some breathing space and stabilized around the above-mentioned level.

    Then on the last day of the workweek, we witnessed a break of the support line as the “ripple” continued to lose ground. It closed at $0.279.

    The weekend of August 22-23 started with a short green candle to $0.286 on Saturday, which was followed by a red one to $0.284 on Sunday. The XRP now found a temporary support level near $0.275.

    Our Altcoin of the week is without a doubt the rebranded OmiseGo (OMG) token, which is now known as OMG Network. The coin added 231 percent to its value for the last seven days and is 300 percent up for the two-week period.

    OMG peaked at $8.12 on Friday, August 21, and is now ranked at #27 on the CoinGecko’s Top 100 list with a market capitalization of approximately $904 million.

    We don’t know what is driving the OMG price up, but on August 19, Tether, the company behind USDT announced its token integration with the OMG Network, which is aimed at reducing transaction costs and improve overall performance, so this might be a causing the coin to surge in the recent days.

    As of the time of writing, OMG is trading at $6.28 against USD on Kraken.

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    Author: Georgi Hristov

    Bitcoin daily chart alert - Bulls still strong - Aug. 24

    Bitcoin daily chart alert – Bulls still strong – Aug. 24

    (Kitco News) – Bitcoin-U.S. dollar prices are higher Friday. The market has paused recently amid choppy trading, which is not bearish. Bulls still have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. A five-week-old price uptrend remains in place on the daily chart. Stay tuned.

    By Jim Wyckoff

    Follow @jimwyckoff



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