Crypto Attacks and What They Mean for Open-Source Value – CoinDesk

Crypto Attacks and What They Mean for Open-Source Value - CoinDesk
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Source: www.americancryptoassociation.com


Ethereum Options Data Suggests Pro Traders Expect ETH Price to Break $400

Ethereum Options Data Suggests Pro Traders Expect ETH Price to Break $400

Ethereum (ETH) options open interest increased by 5 fold over the past three months to reach $337 million. 

Although this figure pales in comparison to the current $1.8 billion Bitcoin (BTC) options market, Ether options have grown to reach the same size the BTC options market was roughly 15 months ago.

ETH options open interest in USD terms

ETH options open interest in USD terms. Source: Skew

Options are divided into two basic instruments: calls, aimed mostly for bullish strategies, and puts, used chiefly on bearish trades. 

This is a simplistic view, but it provides a bird’s-eye-view of what professional traders expectations are as large trades weigh heavier on the index.

ETH options open interest put/call ratio

ETH options open interest put/call ratio. Source: Skew

This put/call ratio touched 0.37 in mid-March, indicating put options (bearish) open interest was 63% lower than call options (bullish). All this changed after the crypto market crash on March 12 when Ether price collapsed by more than 40%.

Traders began building protective positions at an impressive pace, and the put/call ratio reached 1.04 in early-June, indicating put options had higher open interest than calls. 

As Ether (ETH) failed to break $250 level, open interest receded a bit to 0.84 in mid-July.

Oddly enough, despite the recent 64% rally to current $390 since July 20, options markets continue to add more bearish put options. This indicator shouldn’t be analyzed on a standalone basis as these puts could be worth pennies if their odds are considered low.

Another widely used indicator is the comparison of open interest above and below current market levels. 

To reduce the impact of the $400 expiry concentration, one should analyze open interest 6% below the current $390 Ether price and 6% above, thereby excluding such levels.

ETH options open interest by strike (thousand)

ETH options open interest by strike (thousand). Source: Skew

There are currently 530K ETH options below the $370 expiry, versus 280K ETH with strikes above $400. This indicates 65% options strikes regardless of calls or puts, below current market levels.

Such an indicator might prove most traders were not expecting such a strong rally, although it doesn’t necessarily translate to bearishness. 

Given enough time, more trades should go through expiries above $400, and this ratio could balance itself.

Options skew measures how much more expensive call options are relative to similar risk put options. A hands-on approach of measuring it compares a call option price 10% above underlying futures reference to a put option 10% below.

In a neutral market, the mark (fair) price for both should be very similar. If the call option is more expensive, it indicates market makers are demanding more money for upside protection. 

This is a bullish signal, whereas the opposite with a more expensive put option equates to bearishness.

Deribit Ether (ETH) options for September 25 expiry

Deribit Ether (ETH) options for September 25 expiry. Source: Deribit

On August 8, ETH markets relative to the $400 underlying September futures are signaling bullishness. Upside protection (call options) 10% above are trading at 0.082 ETH while downside protection (put options) at 0.0693, hence 15.5% cheaper.

This is undoubtedly a bullish indicator, and shouldn’t be biased by recent price changes as market makers continually reevaluate bids and offers according to volatility and market conditions.

The single most important indicator of a futures contract is the basis level. This is measured by comparing 1-month and 3-month contracts versus the current spot price. 

A healthy market should display a contango situation, with futures trading at a 5% or more annualized premium.

Bearish markets will either display a neutral basis, below 5% annualized, or even worse in a situation known as backwardation as the basis goes negative.

ETH 1-month futures annualized basis

ETH 1-month futures annualized basis. Source: Skew

Currently, ETH futures annualized basis has been sustaining levels above 10% for the past two weeks, indicating a very bullish tone from the standpoint of futures trading. 

One should note that the current 20% contango might indicate excessive leverage from buyers, but it is not necessarily dangerous. If most of the leveraged futures positions have been created below current price levels, buyers are comfortable enough to pay for the high carry cost.

Many technical analysis traders only analyze the daily and weekly charts to provide insight on an asset’s future possibilities but this generates an incomplete view of the asset’s situation. 

Monitoring how market makers are currently pricing options markets and the status of the  current future contracts’ premium seems a better way to gauge professional traders sentiment.

Both options put/call ratio and the amount held at each strike level seem contaminated by volumes that happened over two weeks ago, when Ether was trading below $300.

At the moment, trading data on options and futures markets points to a strong bullish perspective from professional traders. This is a good indication that the $400 resistance can be broken over the next couple of weeks.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision.

Source: elexonic.com

Author: by elexonic


Ethereum Options Data Suggests Pro Traders Expect ETH Price to Break $400

Ethereum Options Data Suggests Pro Traders Expect ETH Price to Break $400

Ethereum (ETH) options open interest increased by 5 fold over the past three months to reach $337 million. 

Although this figure pales in comparison to the current $1.8 billion Bitcoin (BTC) options market, Ether options have grown to reach the same size the BTC options market was roughly 15 months ago.

ETH options open interest in USD terms

ETH options open interest in USD terms. Source: Skew

Options are divided into two basic instruments: calls, aimed mostly for bullish strategies, and puts, used chiefly on bearish trades. 

This is a simplistic view, but it provides a bird’s-eye-view of what professional traders expectations are as large trades weigh heavier on the index.

ETH options open interest put/call ratio

ETH options open interest put/call ratio. Source: Skew

This put/call ratio touched 0.37 in mid-March, indicating put options (bearish) open interest was 63% lower than call options (bullish). All this changed after the crypto market crash on March 12 when Ether price collapsed by more than 40%.

What future awaits cryptocurrencies?
GOODBAD

Traders began building protective positions at an impressive pace, and the put/call ratio reached 1.04 in early-June, indicating put options had higher open interest than calls. 

As Ether (ETH) failed to break $250 level, open interest receded a bit to 0.84 in mid-July.

Oddly enough, despite the recent 64% rally to current $390 since July 20, options markets continue to add more bearish put options. This indicator shouldn’t be analyzed on a standalone basis as these puts could be worth pennies if their odds are considered low.

Another widely used indicator is the comparison of open interest above and below current market levels. 

To reduce the impact of the $400 expiry concentration, one should analyze open interest 6% below the current $390 Ether price and 6% above, thereby excluding such levels.

ETH options open interest by strike (thousand)

ETH options open interest by strike (thousand). Source: Skew

There are currently 530K ETH options below the $370 expiry, versus 280K ETH with strikes above $400. This indicates 65% options strikes regardless of calls or puts, below current market levels.

Such an indicator might prove most traders were not expecting such a strong rally, although it doesn’t necessarily translate to bearishness. 

Given enough time, more trades should go through expiries above $400, and this ratio could balance itself.

Options skew measures how much more expensive call options are relative to similar risk put options. A hands-on approach of measuring it compares a call option price 10% above underlying futures reference to a put option 10% below.

In a neutral market, the mark (fair) price for both should be very similar. If the call option is more expensive, it indicates market makers are demanding more money for upside protection. 

This is a bullish signal, whereas the opposite with a more expensive put option equates to bearishness.

Deribit Ether (ETH) options for September 25 expiry

Deribit Ether (ETH) options for September 25 expiry. Source: Deribit

On August 8, ETH markets relative to the $400 underlying September futures are signaling bullishness. Upside protection (call options) 10% above are trading at 0.082 ETH while downside protection (put options) at 0.0693, hence 15.5% cheaper.

This is undoubtedly a bullish indicator, and shouldn’t be biased by recent price changes as market makers continually reevaluate bids and offers according to volatility and market conditions.

The single most important indicator of a futures contract is the basis level. This is measured by comparing 1-month and 3-month contracts versus the current spot price. 

A healthy market should display a contango situation, with futures trading at a 5% or more annualized premium.

Bearish markets will either display a neutral basis, below 5% annualized, or even worse in a situation known as backwardation as the basis goes negative.

ETH 1-month futures annualized basis

ETH 1-month futures annualized basis. Source: Skew

Currently, ETH futures annualized basis has been sustaining levels above 10% for the past two weeks, indicating a very bullish tone from the standpoint of futures trading. 

One should note that the current 20% contango might indicate excessive leverage from buyers, but it is not necessarily dangerous. If most of the leveraged futures positions have been created below current price levels, buyers are comfortable enough to pay for the high carry cost.

Many technical analysis traders only analyze the daily and weekly charts to provide insight on an asset’s future possibilities but this generates an incomplete view of the asset’s situation. 

Monitoring how market makers are currently pricing options markets and the status of the  current future contracts’ premium seems a better way to gauge professional traders sentiment.

Both options put/call ratio and the amount held at each strike level seem contaminated by volumes that happened over two weeks ago, when Ether was trading below $300.

At the moment, trading data on options and futures markets points to a strong bullish perspective from professional traders. This is a good indication that the $400 resistance can be broken over the next couple of weeks.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision.

Source: www.americancryptoassociation.com


Ethereum Classic suffers second 51% attack in a week

Ethereum Classic suffers second 51% attack in a week

Ethereum Classic (ETC) experienced a 4,000 block org as a result of a 51% attack on August 5—the second block reorg to take place on the network within five days. Although the monetary damage from the latest attack is unknown, if it’s anything like the August 1 incident in which 3,000 blocks were reorged, then you can expect significant monetary losses to the ETC network.

The August 1 attack

The 3,000 block reorg that took place on August 1st was initially thought to be a 51% attack that took place accidentally when a majority of the hash on the ETC network went offline for maintenance. However, a recent analysis of the event from Bitquery has revealed that the August 1st attack was premeditated and resulted in a double-spend of 807,260 ETC (worth roughly $5,765,189 at press time).

According to the Bitquery report, the attacker purchased an amount of hash power from Nicehash provider daggerhashimoto that would give them control of more than 51% of the ETC network. The report says that the attacker spent 17.5 BTC (worth roughly $207,266.50 at press time) for the additional hash; once the attacker controlled a majority of the network, they began double-spending ETC and double-spent over $5.7 million in ETC total. In addition, the attacker mined all of the blocks they reorged and earned an estimated 13,000 ETC (worth roughly $92,821.61 at press time) from mining the block reward.

Was it the same attacker?

Not much is known about the August 5 attack, and if it is anything like the attack that took place on August 1, it will take several days for the details of the attack to be released. Considering it took blockchain analysis companies so long to figure out what actually happened in the August 1st attack, it would not be surprising to learn that the August 5th attack was executed by the same individual using the same method to breach the network.

New to Bitcoin? Check out CoinGeek’s Bitcoin for Beginners section, the ultimate resource guide to learn more about Bitcoin—as originally envisioned by Satoshi Nakamoto—and blockchain.

Source link

Source: otcpm24.com

Author: News Bureau


Here's Why Ethereum Holding Above $400 Could Unlock a Massive Surge

Here’s Why Ethereum Holding Above $400 Could Unlock a Massive Surge

For the umpteenth time in the past week, Ethereum was rejected at the critical $400 resistance during Saturday’s rally. The cryptocurrency failed to decisively hold above that level despite the rallying in the value of altcoins. As of the time of this article’s writing, ETH trades for $395, just shy of the aforementioned resistance.

Analysts say that Ethereum holding above $400 on a macro basis could be the precursor to an even greater surge in the weeks and months ahead.

Ethereum closing August’s monthly candle above the price of $404 could lead to a massive surge, suggests a simple technical signal. A cryptocurrency trader shared the chart of ETH’s macro price action below on August 8th, showing a technical indicator that denotes long-term trends and a pivotal level.

The technical level suggests that Ethereum closing above $404 for August’s candle will make the asset’s long-term trend positive for the first time since mid-2018.

The last time the trend flipped positive was at the start of Ethereum’s price chart on Kraken, when ETH was literally a single-digit asset.

It’s hard to say what exactly Ethereum will do once (if) the technical trend flips long. However, it is important to point out that the same technical indicator for Bitcoin has managed to predict BTC’s macro price action rather well.

Image

Chart of ETH's price action over a macro scale with a Super Trend (or Super Trend-like indicator) by trader Byzantine General (@Byzgeneral on Twitter). Chart from TradingView.com

Fortunately for buyers of the cryptocurrency, the cryptocurrency is set to cross above $400 according to analysts and fundamental trends.

As reported by NewsBTC previously, one analyst noted that Ethereum’s price action looks as though it is about to break past $400. He cited a fractal analysis of May 2019:

“I don’t know why not all of CT is talking about this ridiculously similar looking fractal. Spoiler: this chop led to another massive pump in 2019.”

Image

Chart of ETH's price action with a fractal analysis by trader Byzantine General (@Byzgeneral on Twitter). Chart from TradingView.com

Further corroborating the Ethereum bull case are the expectations of an influx of capital investment in ETH from institutional players.

The head of DTC Capital, Spencer Noon, said earlier this week:

“My read on #DeFi after speaking with instl investors, fund mgrs, OTC desks, and FOs over the last few wks: The herd is coming. They’re excited about DeFi but new to it, so they’re buying $ETH first.”

Source: www.americancryptoassociation.com


Crypto Attacks and What They Mean for Open-Source Value - CoinDesk


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