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"Scary" Fractal: It's Only a Matter of Time Before Bitcoin Trades at $14,000 Again
Bitcoin’s recent price action has seen it fail time and time again to break into the $10,000s. Just recently, the cryptocurrency dove 4% yet again, falling from the high-$9,000s to $9,400.
It’s consolidation under a key resistance that has had some analysts skeptical that Bitcoin will continue even higher.
Yet an analyst suggested that there’s a “scary” fractal predicting BTC trades at $14,000 in the coming six weeks.
A fractal in financial markets is when a period of price action is seen again for another asset and/or on a different time frame. As Investopedia explains:
“Fractals also refer to a recurring pattern that occurs amid larger more chaotic price movements”
A cryptocurrency trader recently identified a fractal. He argued that Bitcoin’s price action from the start of April until now looks eerily similar to a period at the end of 2016, after the previous block reward halving.
Bitcoin has traced the fractal to a T over the past few weeks, falling when it does and rallying when it does. The two periods of price action are so closely overlapped that it’s almost hard to tell where one begins and the other ends.
Should the fractal play out in full, Bitcoin will trade at $14,000 and even higher in the coming six weeks, according to the trader’s chart:
“Scary fitting fractal from EO 2016 Cut of the top part to not trigger anyone If we see anything like it… inverse capitulation becomes real,” he remarked in reference to the chart below and how crypto investors are expecting “capitulation.”
Some may brand the fractal as unpredictable, but the analyst that shared it has made some surprising calls over the past few months.
When Bitcoin fell around 50% in 24 hours to a price of $3,700 in March, most analysts were fearful of a collapse of the industry.
One prominent commentator suggested that there was a valid chance BTC fell under $1,000. Others followed suit, with some exiting crypto entirely.
But the analyst who shared the fractal above, literally just hours after the crash transpired, said that the bottom was in. He also said that Bitcoin was primed to see a V-shaped recovery that would bring it back to $10,000 by May or June.
As we now know, he was right.
Bitcoin bottomed at the price he marked, then rallied in a V-shaped way to recover to $10,000 just weeks ago.
Economist: Crypto’s correlation to stocks could spur massive BTC price decline
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Bitcoin and the crypto market appear to have been forming a close correlation to the stock market over the past few months.
This correlation has grown incredibly strong in recent weeks, and it does appear that crypto investors are taking their cues from the traditional markets – likely with the assumption that BTC will closely trail the equity market’s movements.
Data backs this notion, as the realized correlation between Bitcoin and the S&P 500 surged since mid-May and continued climbing in June.
One economist believes that this correlation makes downside more favorable for the crypto market, with BTC potentially being bound to see a decline of between $500 and $1,000 in the coming weeks.
Bitcoin’s price action over the past few months has been lackluster.
It has been caught within a tight trading range between $9,000 and $10,000, with both its buyers and sellers being unable to shatter either of these levels.
This sideways trading has muddied the clarity that many analysts previously had regarding the strength of its uptrend. It has also caused the crypto’s trading volume to slide as many active investors move to the sidelines.
It does appear that this price action is coming about as a result of that seen in the traditional markets.
Equities have similarly been incurring some range-bound trading due to investors being unsure of just how long it will take for the economy to reach its pre-pandemic state.
According to data from analytics platform Skew, the benchmark crypto and the S&P 500 have been seeing a heightened correlation in recent times.
As seen in the above chart, this correlation became heightened in mid-May and has been growing ever since.
Alex Krüger – a respected crypto-focused economist – explained in a recent tweet that he believes the correlation between the crypto market and the traditional market could expose Bitcoin to some major near-term losses.
He contends that the striking correlation makes it more likely that BTC’s next $1,000 movement will be to the downside.
“Crypto has been following stocks again in the last few weeks. Charts for large caps look rather bleak. I place higher odds on a BTC 500-1000 downmove than on a 500-1000 upmove. Reduced long exposure accordingly. I’d be surprised if 9K is not run over in the following few days.”
It does remain a possibility, however, that new waves of economic stimulus from the government will help sustain that market’s recovery, thus creating a tailwind that also lifts Bitcoin higher.
Bitcoin, currently ranked #1 by market cap, is down 1.61% over the past 24 hours. BTC has a market cap of $166.3B with a 24 hour volume of $16.79B.
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