BTC Price Outlook: Bitcoin Halving Prompts Crypto Volatility
- BTC price action swings wildly around the highly anticipated Bitcoin halving event
- Halving could boost Bitcoin prices considering the cryptocurrency’s fixed supply
- Bitcoin volatility could remain elevated as traders react to the monumental change
The halving of Bitcoin just happened for the third time since the cryptocurrency was first launched in 2009. Bitcoin halving, an expected event that occurs every four years, is an inherent characteristic of Bitcoin and blockchain mechanics.
Learn More – What is Bitcoin? Understanding Bitcoin Basics
Simply stated, Bitcoin halving is a pre-planned adjustment to the amount of compensation awarded for mining Bitcoin. This helps maintain the fixed Bitcoin supply of about 21 million BTC.
Chart created by @RichDvorakFX with TradingView
BTC price volatility accelerated into the May 2020 Bitcoin halving event. This is reflected by the rising average true range, or ATR, on an hourly Bitcoin chart. Bitcoin has plunged by more than 10% from its month-to-date high near the $10,000 price level as key market players, like crypto traders and Bitcoin miners, adjust to the latest halving development.
Bitcoin prices nevertheless trade about 20% higher on balance so far this year. BTC price action, along with gold, gained ground over recent months largely on the back of demand for anti-fiat assets, which follows unprecedented central bank balance sheet growth.
Considering the fixed supply of Bitcoin and gold, this trend has potential to continue as long as liquidity gushes from central bank money printing. Also, news that billionaire hedge fund manager and investor Paul Tudor Jones recently joined the crypto craze is likely a welcomed development for the bull case.
Learn More – A Guide to Day Trading Bitcoin & Other Cryptocurrencies
— Written by Rich Dvorak, Junior Analyst for DailyFX.com
Connect with @RichDvorakFX on Twitter for real-time market insight
Author: Rich Dvorak
- Global survey found that lupus strongly affects physical function and quality of life 07.05.20
- Federal Reserve: XRP reacts differently than Bitcoin to regulatory news
- Bitcoin Halving Arrives: Mining Rewards Drop for Third Time in History
- Bitcoin investors are bracing for a key technical event — here’s what you need to know
- EOS, Ethereum and Ripple’s XRP – Daily Tech Analysis – 12/05/20
Global survey found that lupus strongly affects physical function and quality of life 07.05.20
World Lupus Federation survey data shows that Lupus affects mobility and ability to perform normal activities
WASHINGTON, May 7, 2020 / PRNewswire / – In a new global survey of more than 3,500 people with lupus published by the World Lupus Federation (WLF) for World Lupus Day on May 10, nearly 7 out of 10 respondents said that Lupus is hindering their mobility. The majority of respondents also stated that they were not allowed to perform daily activities due to lupus, including restrictions on climbing stairs (67%) and doing housework (69%) such as vacuuming or gardening.
The international survey included respondents from over 70 countries and underpins the devastating and life-changing effects that Lupus can have on the physical function of the estimated five million people living with the disease worldwide.
“Lupus can affect every part of a person's life. Unfortunately, the physical impact of this disease due to problems with mobility, pain, or fatigue shows how much lupus can affect the ability to perform daily activities, stay physically active, or sometimes even get out of bed, "said Jeanette Andersen, chair of Lupus Europe, one of the founding members of the World Lupus Federation, "This can significantly affect quality of life and underlines the importance of people with Lupus working with their care team to treat pain and mobility."
Pain from lupus has also been reported as a significant problem. Almost 90% of the participants replied that pain affected normal activities, including housework and work outside the home. In addition, 73% of respondents said they were less physically active than other people their age who did not have lupus.
Lupus is a chronic autoimmune disease in which the immune system is out of balance and produces antibodies that destroy healthy tissue and organs. The disease most often affects the skin, joints, kidneys, brain, heart and lungs. While therapies to treat symptoms are available, there is no cure for lupus. The level of awareness and research on lupus is low compared to the global impact of the disease, which is why sharing data on the effects of lupus is so important.
“The World Lupus Federation is committed to improving the quality of life for everyone affected by Lupus. Raising awareness of the challenges people with lupus face on a daily basis, such as B. The impact of lupus on physical function and mobility leads to a better understanding of the devastating effects of the disease, which are increasing not only for the public but also for heads of government around the world Funding research into safer and more effective treatments, Support services and education, "said Stevan W. Gibson, president and CEO of the Lupus Foundation of America, which serves as the secretariat of the World Lupus Federation.
A summary of the results and a toolkit for digital awareness of World Lupus Day can be found at worldlupusday.org.
About the World Lupus Federation and World Lupus Day
The World Lupus Federation (WLF) is a coalition of Lupus patient organizations that have come together to improve the quality of life of all people affected by Lupus. The WLF conducts annual World Lupus Day observance to pay more attention to the disease and its effects on millions of people worldwide. The World Lupus Day, which takes place for the 17th time, takes place on May 10th and includes educational conferences, health fairs, media appearances and online promotions to raise public awareness and to stimulate public and governmental measures to end lupus.
Vice President Communication, Lupus Foundation of America
Photo – https://mma.prnewswire.com/media/1164582/World_Lupus_Day_Logo.jpg
Federal Reserve: XRP reacts differently than Bitcoin to regulatory news
- The U.S. Federal Reserve reveals that the cryptocurrency XRP didn’t show great reaction or movements in price to regulatory news in the past.
- Bitcoin, Litecoin, Bitcoin Cash and Ethereum showed a bigger reaction in terms of price performance to regulatory news.
The U.S. Federal Reserve, Dallas branch, released a report on the price performance of the major cryptocurrencies and the reaction of the price performance they show to regulatory news. The study, entitled “Cryptocurrency Market Reactions to Regulatory News”, shows how news about new regulations can have an effect on the crypto market depending on the nature of the regulation. The study reveals a particular behavior for XRP.
The study analyzes the behavior of Bitcoin and its forks, Litecoin and Bitcoin Cash. The behavior of Ethereum is also taken into consideration. In that sense, the study says the following:
(…) cryptocurrencies are often thought to operate out of the reach of national regulation, but in fact, their valuations, transaction volumes, and user bases react substantially to news about regulatory actions.
The study creates an index that measures the reaction of Bitcoin’s price to different regulatory news. The same figures are taken for other cryptocurrencies as well. The study describes in more detail:
This index captures how, on a given day, regulatory events would have moved the price of bitcoin. We then gauge the price responses of other cryptocurrencies to changes in this index, i.e. we essentially see whether the prices of these other cryptocurrencies reacted more or less strongly to regulatory news than bitcoin did, on average.
According to the study’s conclusions, BTC price has a high response, rather positive or negative, to regulatory news. In addition, the study finds that Litecoin, Bitcoin Cash and Ethereum have a similar reaction to Bitcoin on regulatory news:
Bitcoin Cash and Litecoin – as well as the second largest cryptocurrency by valuation, Ethereum, react significantly to CRNI (cryptocurrency regulatory news index, columns 2–4). The impact is not significantly different from 1, however, ie they are as strongly affected by these news events as bitcoin is.
Meanwhile, Monero and Zcash showed completely different reactions. Monero is more responsive to regulatory news than Bitcoin. Zcash, on the other hand, has a low reaction to regulatory news. In that sense, XRP shows a similar behavior. The reason can be found in the centralization of the token and Ripple’s supposed control over XRP:
The XRP token also react less, which may reflect that its network of trusted nodes is centrally controlled by its issuer Ripple, making the XRP token distinct from other, permissionless, cryptocurrencies.
Bitcoin Halving Arrives: Mining Rewards Drop for Third Time in History
(Credit: The Trustees of the British Museum)
Bitcoin’s third halving, the network’s quadrennial landmark and the most anticipated event this year in the cryptocurrency industry, has finally happened.
Miners racing on the network to compete for freshly minted bitcoin produced the 630,000th block at 19:23 UTC on May 11, which triggered the programmed halving event, marking another milestone in the currency’s 11-year history.
The first block in the new 6.25-bitcoin-per-block mining cycle was mined and relayed by China-based Antpool, the fourth-largest mining pool by total computing power.
In an homage to Satoshi Nakamoto’s iconic “brink of a second bailout” message in the 2009 genesis block, f2pool, which mined the 629,999th block (the last before the halving), embedded a reference to the current financial crisis: “NYTimes 09/Apr/2020 With $2.3T Injection, Fed’s Plan Far Exceeds 2008 Rescue.”
Bitcoin, the world’s first and largest blockchain network by market capitalization, was designed by its pseudonymous creator Nakamoto to reduce the rewards for mining each block by half every 210,000 blocks in order to slow down the injection of new supply to the network as time goes by.
The mining reward is an economic incentive for those who contribute computing power to securing the network, as well as processing transactions on the network since no single entity functions as a central bookkeeper.
The 2020 halving, the third in the network’s history, means the mining reward has now been reduced from 12.5 bitcoin per block to 6.25 units. It went down to 25 from 50 bitcoin per block in November 2012 and further decreased to 12.5 units in July 2016.
The immediate implication after halving is that the newly minted bitcoin in a day will fall from 1,800 to 900 units. That would also mean mining operators will see their daily total revenue – at bitcoin’s current price of $8600 – reduced from $15 million to $8 million.
As such, it has been expected the computing power connected to the Bitcoin network will fall significantly after the halving as the revenue decrease will squeeze out those miner operators who lack efficient resources to cut their electricity costs.
However, it remains to be seen how that will play out after the halving. Currently, the average Bitcoin total computing power over the last seven days since the previous mining difficulty adjustment has hit a new all-time high of 121 exahashes per second (EH/s), beating the previous record of 118 EH/s, according to data from Chinese mining pool PoolIn.
As such, Bitcoin’s mining difficulty – a measure of how hard it is to compete for mining rewards – is expected to increase by 4.9% in about seven days to an all-time high above 16.55 trillion, based on PoolIn’s data estimate.
Bitcoin’s mining difficulty is programmed to adjust every 2,016 blocks – about every two weeks – based on the amount of computing power participating in mining activity during the period.
Author: Zack Voell
Bitcoin investors are bracing for a key technical event — here’s what you need to know
A visual representation of the digital cryptocurrency bitcoin.
Yu Chun Christopher Wong | S3studio | Getty Images
Bitcoin faces a key technical event Monday known as the “halving.” Due to take place later in the day, industry insiders are debating what effect it might have on the cryptocurrency market.
So what is the halving? You can think of it as an update to the underlying network that logs all bitcoin transactions. There are so-called “miners” on this network with specialized computing rigs competing to solve complex math problems to validate bitcoin transactions. Whoever wins that race gets rewarded in bitcoin.
On Monday, the amount of bitcoins rewarded to those miners is set to get cut in half. This is something that takes place roughly every four years to keep a lid on inflation. The current reward stands at 12.5 bitcoins, or BTC, so that will now be reduced to 6.25 BTC.
Unlike fiat currencies like the dollar, there is no central bank that manages the supply of bitcoin or its inflation rate. Instead, this is maintained thanks to a rule written into bitcoin’s code by pseudonymous inventor Satoshi Nakamoto.
The total number of bitcoins that will ever be mined is capped at 21 million. Rewards to bitcoin miners keep halving until they reach zero. Bitcoin bulls say that this scarcity is part of what underpins the cryptocurrency’s value and make it a potential “hedge” against currencies that are vulnerable to devaluation in times of economic crisis.
“With its finite and scheduled supply and decentralized architecture, BTC, in particular, offers the certainty needed in times like these, and will likely become a new safe-haven asset class,” cryptocurrency lending start-up Nexo wrote in a note last week.
Investors are likely to closely watch the reaction of bitcoin and other cryptocurrency prices to the halving event later in the day. Some believe the event has been mostly priced into markets already, but there are others who think it could boost prices.
The past two halvings led to opposite short-term price movements, according to British bitcoin exchange CoinCorner. Bitcoin climbed 7% one month on from the first halving event in 2012, but slipped 10% a month after the second one in 2016. However, the price rose 944% six months on from the 2012 halving and 38% in the same period in 2016.
“While many anticipate bullish movements post-halving, we believe the supply shock that comes immediately after the halving event should have limited impact on price in the short term,” Lennard Neo, head of research at Singapore-based bitcoin index fund provider Stack, said in a note Thursday. “As the block reward for miners decreases, there will be a time lag as miners (supply side) reposition towards market equilibrium.”
“We anticipate that it could take 6-9 months before this equilibrium is found and Bitcoin realises halving-induced price appreciation. That said, further turmoil in the broader economies could accelerate its upward trajectory.”
But there are also fears that the 2020 halving will also have an impact on miners’ earnings, as they’ll need more competitive mining gear to win bitcoin rewards.
“Miners currently need to produce more work to get the same reward,” said Ed Hindi, CIO at Cayman Islands-based cryptocurrency hedge fund Tyr Capital. “Post halving their expected returns will be cut in half.”
Bitcoin has risen more than 20% since the start of the year. The virtual currency, known for its volatility, suffered at sharp drop over the weekend. It briefly touched $10,000 on Friday but has since declined to around $8,800 as of Monday morning.
Author: Ryan Browne
EOS, Ethereum and Ripple’s XRP – Daily Tech Analysis – 12/05/20
EOS fell by 1.87% on Monday. Following on from an 11.0% tumble on Sunday, EOS ended the day at $2.4011.
A mixed start to the day saw EOS rise to an early morning high $2.4811 before falling to a late morning low $2.3909.
Steering clear of the major support and resistance levels, EOS rallied to a mid-day intraday high $2.4917 before hitting reverse.
Falling short of the first major resistance level at $2.7116, EOS slid to a late afternoon intraday low $2.2697.
Steering clear of the first major support level at $2.2216, EOS recovered to $2.40 levels to limit the loss.
At the time of writing, EOS was up by 0.79% to $2.4200. A bullish start to the day saw EOS rise from an early morning low $2.3968 to a high $2.4262.
EOS left the major support and resistance levels untested early on.
EOS would need to move through to $2.45 levels to bring the first major resistance level at $2.5053 into play.
Support from the broader market would be needed, however, for EOS to break out from Monday’s high $2.4917.
Barring an extended crypto rally, the first major resistance level would likely limit any upside.
Failure to move back through to $2.45 levels would see EOS slide into the red.
A fall through the morning low to sub-$2.39 levels would bring the first major support level at $2.2833 into play.
Barring another extended crypto sell-off, however, EOS should steer clear of sub-$2.20 levels.
Major Support Level: $2.2833
Major Resistance Level: $2.5053
23.6% FIB Retracement Level: $6.62
38% FIB Retracement Level: $9.76
62% FIB Retracement Level: $14.82
Ethereum fell by 0.92% on Monday. Following on from a 10.63% tumble on Sunday, Ethereum ended the day at $185.93.
Tracking the broader market, Ethereum rose to an early morning high $191.23 before falling to a late morning low $183.89.
Steering clear of the major support and resistance levels, Ethereum struck a mid-day intraday high $193.77 before hitting reverse.
Falling short of the first major resistance level at $205.19, Ethereum slid to a late afternoon intraday low $176.43.
Avoiding the first major support level at $175.14 Ethereum found late support to limit the loss.
At the time of writing, Ethereum was up by 0.65% to $187.14. A bullish start to the day saw Ethereum rise from an early morning low $185.79 to a high $188.23.
Ethereum left the major support and resistance levels untested early on.
Ethereum would need to move through to $190 levels to bring the first major resistance level at $194.32 into play.
Support from the broader market would be needed, however, for Ethereum to break out from Monday’s high $193.77.
Barring a broad-based crypto rally, the first major resistance level would likely leave Ethereum short of $200 levels.
Failure to move back through to $190 levels could see Ethereum fall back into the red.
A fall back through the morning low to sub-$185.40 levels would bring the first major support level at $176.98 into play.
Barring another extended sell-off, however, Ethereum should avoid sub-$170 levels.
Major Support Level: $176.98
Major Resistance Level: $194.32
23.6% FIB Retracement Level: $257
38.2% FIB Retracement Level: $367
62% FIB Retracement Level: $543
Ripple’s XRP fell by 2.37% on Monday. Following on from an 8.68% slide on Sunday, Ripple’s XRP ended the day at $0.19233.
A mixed start to the day saw Ripple’s XRP rise to an early morning intraday high $0.2000 before hitting reverse.
Falling short of the first major resistance level at $0.2173, Ripple’s XRP fell back to a late morning low $0.19150.
Steering clear of the major support levels, Ripple’s XRP recovered to $0.19965 at mid-day before hitting reverse.
The reversal saw Ripple’s XRP slide to a late afternoon intraday low $0.18450. Steering clear of the first major support level at $0.1761, Ripple’s XRP recovered to $0.19 levels to limit the loss.
At the time of writing, Ripple’s XRP was up by 0.11% to $0.19254. A bullish start to the day saw Ripple’s XRP rise from an early morning low $0.19196 to a high $0.19367.
Ripple’s XRP left the major support and resistance levels untested early on.
Ripple’s XRP will need to move back through to $0.1950 levels to bring the first major resistance level at $0.2001 into play.
Support from the broader market would be needed, however, for Ripple’s XRP to break out from the morning high $0.19367.
Barring an extended crypto rally, the first major resistance level at $0.2001 would likely limit any upside.
Failure to move back through to $0.1950 levels could see Ripple’s XRP hit reverse.
A fall back through to sub-$0.1920 levels would bring the first major support level at $0.1846 into play.
Barring a crypto meltdown, however, Ripple’s XRP should steer clear of sub-$0.18 support levels.
Major Support Level: $0.1846
Major Resistance Level: $0.2001
23.6% FIB Retracement Level: $0.3638
38.2% FIB Retracement Level: $0.4800
62% FIB Retracement Level: $0.6678
Please let us know what you think in the comments below.
Author: Bob Mason3 hours ago (May 12, 2020 12:47 AM GMT)