Latest Ethereum price and analysis (ETH to USD)
Ethereum remains in a bullish position despite being predictably rejected from the $220 level of resistance on Sunday.
As long as the world’s second largest cryptocurrency continues to trade above $200 in the short term it presents more of a chance of upside price action, although a break below would signal a new bearish phase in the market.
As expected much of the attention across the cryptocurrency industry is focused on the Bitcoin halving this week and what its impact will be.
Historically, as previously noted by Coin Rivet, the Bitcoin halving has been a catalyst for a series of staggering bull markets, causing rallies not only in the price of Bitcoin but also altcoins like Ethereum.
But it’s worth pointing out that the bull markets did not happen overnight, with it taking almost a year after the 2016 halving before Bitcoin began its charge to $20,000.
This is why on lower-time frames there may be a 10% correction over the next week or so, although if Bitcoin can break above $9,600 it would confirm a bullish breakout.
In Ethereum’s case the initial target remains at $220 with the next level coming in at $248, which was the high of March 7’s rally before the devastating drop a few days later.
On higher time frames Ethereum desperately needs to create a higher low in order to snap the bearish trend it has been in since 2017.
This would be achieved by a daily or weekly candle close above $300, which is a level that Ethereum has not traded at for the past 11 months.
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Ethereum was launched by Vitalik Buterin on July 30 2015. He was a researcher and programmer working on Bitcoin Magazine and he initially wrote a whitepaper in 2013 describing Ethereum.
Buterin had proposed that Bitcoin needed a scripting language. He decided to develop a new platform with a more general scripting language when he couldn’t get buy-in to his proposal.
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Author: Oliver Knight
May 6, 2020
Ethereum Unlikely to Mirror BTC’s Upside as Risk of Capitulation Grows
- Ethereum has entered a consolidation phase alongside Bitcoin and many other major altcoins
- This has led it to hover within the lower-$200 region, marking a massive retrace from its recent highs of over $230
- Analysts are now growing increasingly bearish on ETH, with one prominent trader noting that he anticipates it to severely underperform Bitcoin in the weeks ahead
Ethereum has seen some heightened levels of technical weakness throughout the past several days and weeks. This has been primarily rooted in its massive retrace from its weekly highs of over $230 that were set six days ago.
This retrace led ETH to erase nearly all the gains that had come about as a result from its recent rally, leading it to also see some severe underperformance of Bitcoin and many of its other peers.
In the near-term, analysts are now noting that they believe this trend of BTC outperforming ETH will continue strong. It could even cause Ethereum to see some notable downside in the days ahead.
At the time of writing, Ethereum is trading up marginally at its current price of $206. This is around the price level it has been trading at for the past several days.
ETH’s ongoing bout of sideways trading comes as Bitcoin hovers within the upper-$8,000 region, with its bulls and bears reaching an impasse as they both fail to trigger a short-term trend.
Although Ethereum has been underperforming the benchmark cryptocurrency throughout the past week, its near-term trend will still likely be somewhat determined by how BTC responds to the heavy resistance it faces at $9,200.
Some traders are offering highly bearish outlooks for ETH’s mid-term price action.
As reported by Bitcoinist yesterday, one such trader recently explained that he believes the crypto’s market structure is highly bearish and likely to lead it into the sub-$100 region in the months ahead.
“ETH / USD 3D TF – As you can see Market structure is still very much in favour continuation of the Bearish trend,” he stated.
This analyst isn’t alone in holding a bear-bias towards Ethereum.
Another highly respected pseudonymous trader recently stated that strong high time frame (HTF) resistance seen on ETH’s Bitcoin trading pair is likely to force it significantly lower in the near-term.
“ETH: Even if BTC goes and mega moons I heavily doubt ETH will take part in it. If we get any kind of halving related crazy spike up or weakness this week, I’m gonna look for ETH shorts. Feels much comfier now that it’s at HTF resistance,” he said.
Featured image from Unplash.
Bitcoin Could Drag Down Ethereum and XRP Ahead of Halving
Market sentiment is overwhelmingly bullish about the Bitcoin halving, but technical indicators show that BTC is due for a correction.
In either case, given the price correlation between major cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin’s next move will set the stage for Ethereum and XRP.
Over the last two months, the TD sequential indicator has been quite accurate at anticipating when Bitcoin is bound for a bearish impulse. In mid-February, for instance, it presented a sell signal in the form of a green nine candlestick that was followed by a 62% correction. Then, this technical index provided a similar bearish outlook on Mar. 26 and Apr. 8 as BTC was reaching overbought territory.
After these sell signals were given, the flagship cryptocurrency dropped nearly 13% and 12.5%, respectively.
The TD setup formed another green nine candlestick at the beginning of the month, suggesting that Bitcoin was poised to correct. While some of the most prominent analysts in the industry have talked about the likelihood of a bearish scenario, BTC has still failed to retrace. Instead, it continues consolidating within a narrow trading range.
This consolidation area is defined by the lower and upper Bollinger bands that sit between $8,600 and $9,170. As the Bollinger bands squeeze on BTC’s 4-hour chart, it builds momentum for a period of high volatility.
The unpredictability of the market, especially now that the halving is just a few days away, makes it impossible to determine the direction of the breakout. Therefore, the trading range between $8,600 and $9,170 is a reasonable no-trade zone.
A daily candlestick close below support or above resistance will confirm where the bellwether cryptocurrency is headed next.
A spike in sell orders behind Bitcoin may allow it to break below support, which would likely validate the pessimistic view that the TD index forecasted. The downward pressure can send the pioneer cryptocurrency towards the next levels of support represented by the 78.6% and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement levels.
These demand barriers sit at $8,300 and $7,400, respectively.
Nevertheless, a bullish impulse above the overhead resistance at $9,170 could catapult Bitcoin towards higher highs. Under such circumstances, the critical supply levels to watch out are BTC’s recent high of nearly $9,500 and the 127.2% Fibonacci retracement level at $10,900.
Ether’s price action has been contained within an ascending parallel channel ever since the March market meltdown.
Consistent with the characteristics of a channel, each time ETH rises to the upper boundary of the channel, it drops down to hit the lower boundary, and from this point, it bounces back up again.
Following the recent rejection from the overhead resistance, Ethereum retraced over 11% and is now trading around the middle of the parallel channel. An increase in supply around this area could push the smart contracts giant further down to the lower boundary of this technical pattern.
On the 4-hour chart, Ethereum can be seen breaking below the 50-four-hour moving average, which adds credence to the bearish outlook. If the selling volume continues rising, Ether may retest the 100-four-hour moving average for support. This is where the bottom of the aforementioned parallel channel sits.
Failing to hold above this key support barrier could be catastrophic for the smart contracts token as it suggests a steeper decline. The next level of support below this area sits at around $178.
Even though Ether seems ready for another leg down, the optimistic outlook cannot be omitted due to the irrationality of the crypto market. An increase in demand for ETH that allows it to regain the 50-four-hour moving average could signal a retest of the upper boundary of the channel.
As in the case of Bitcoin, the TD sequential indicator has been quite precise at estimating XRP’s price slumps. This technical index was able to predict the correction that began in early April by presenting a sell signal in the form of a green nine candlestick. Following the bearish formation, this altcoin pulled back more than 14%.
Now, the TD setup has given two consecutive sell signals on XRP’s 1-day chart. The first one developed in the form of a green nine candlestick and the second one as an aggressive 13 candlestick. The combination of the two increases the expected odds of a retracement.
XRP’s 4-hour chart reveals that the 50-four-hour exponential moving average is currently acting as strong support. However, if this key resistance level fails to hold, the cross-border remittances token could aim to test the 100 or 200-four-hour exponential moving averages. These areas of support sit at $0.205 and $0.198, respectively.
It is worth mentioning that a spike in the buying pressure behind Ripple’s native token could put the pessimistic forecast in jeopardy. If so, an important resistance level to pay attention to lies around $0.23. A candlestick close above this area might propel XRP towards $0.27.
Google searches for the keyword “bitcoin halving” are hitting all-time highs. Likewise, the chatter around this topic is dominating the airtime on social media and cryptocurrency-focused publications, based on data from The TIE.
The optimism around this event can even be seen within the Crypto Fear and Greed Index, which recently moved away from sensing “extreme fear” among market participants.
Regardless of investors’ sentiment, the flagship cryptocurrency seems bound for a correction from a technical perspective. Such a bearish impulse in BTC may be able to bring the entire market down with it.
As emotions continue to run high in proximity to the halving, it is important to wait for confirmation before entering trades. Patience under the current market conditions will be key to avoid adverse market conditions.
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Bitcoin’s 2016 Fractal Shows Ethereum May See 6000% Rally by 2023
A prominent analyst within the crypto community suggested that Ethereum’s price action seems to resemble the way Bitcoin was behaving between 2015 and 2018. Under such circumstances, the chartist implied that ETH can surge up to 63x in its next bull run.
The smart contracts giant could have the ability to peak at a high of $13,000 if this scenario were to become true.
The unpredictability of the cryptocurrency market makes it impossible to determine what the long-term future holds for Ethereum. However, another renowned technical analyst argued that in the near term this altcoin is bound for a steep correction.
Find me a better RR ratio. $ETH. pic.twitter.com/oOhhoOuSON
— Wolf (@IamCryptoWolf) May 4, 2020
Crypto enthusiasts appear to be growing overwhelmingly bullish about Bitcoin’s halving. Many see the block rewards reduction event as the catalyst that can push the flagship cryptocurrency into a full blown bull market. And, there is a certain level of truth to it.
Plan B built a mathematical model dubbed stock-to-flow (S2F) that suggests that Bitcoin’s scarcity is highly correlated with the value of the network. Under this premise, the S2F has been able to accurately predict the trajectory of BTC’s price action over the years.
Now that Bitcoin’s rate of issuance will soon drop by 50%, the S2F projects a market value increase of 10x. With a market cap of $1 trillion, BTC’s price will be hovering around $55,000, according to Plan B. But, that is not all.
The significant reduction in the rate of inflation makes the S2F predict that the bellwether cryptocurrency will hit $95,000 sometime next year.
Bitcoin’s stock-to-flow model. (Source: digitalik.net)
A $95,000 Bitcooin makes Wolf’s bullish scenario for Ethereum reachable in the long-run. However, another renowned technical analyst argues that Ether is far from entering its next bull cycle.
Trading afficionado DonAlt maintains that even if Bitcoin enters a bull market, he doubts that Ethereum could follow. The analyst believes that the different resistance levels ahead of ETH are so significant they cannot break easily. Thus, they could continue to hold and put a stop to the smart contracts giant’s uprising.
The massive supply wall ahead of Ethereum sits between $200 and $230. If this barrier is indeed able to hold, DonAlt suggested a pullback to support between $150 and $140.
Even if BTC goes and mega moons I heavily doubt ETH will take part in it.
If we get any kind of halving related crazy spike up or weakness this week, I’m gonna look for ETH shorts.
Feels much comfier now that it’s at HTF resistance. pic.twitter.com/cOY5LE2cPo
— DonAlt (@CryptoDonAlt) May 4, 2020
On the flip side, the prominent chartist said that the trading pair ETH/BTC does not look as “terrible” as the ETH/USD pair.
Emotions around market participants are running high as the halving approaches. While many have warned that a steep decline is underway, there are those who argue that this event represents a pivotal point for the industry as a whole.
Whether bullish or bearish, it is always important to have a solid risk management strategy to avoid adverse market conditions.
Author: Ali Martinez
Latest (ETC) Ethereum Classic News – Ethereum Classic Crypto News (May 6, 2020)