Crypto Today: XRP bulls shine smashing the big $0.2000 restoring buyer confidence
BTC/USD is currently trading at $7780 (+0.85%), near-term consolidation being observed, with the bulls gunning for a big $8000 return.
ETH/USD is currently trading at $197 (+1.25%), consolidating below $200, a move above could be explosive.
XRP/USD is currently trading at $0.21 (+7.70%), a huge surge in momentum came into play, following the bulls breaking out of a bullish pennant structure.
Among the 100 most important cryptocurrencies, the best of the day are LEND $0.040311(+17.80%), XLM $0.070023 (+12.85%) DGTX $0.048779 (+11.15%) The day’s losers are HIVE $0.520393 (-31.92%), STEEM $0.205073 (-7.55%), MAID $0.098937 (-4.60%).
Tron (TRX) announced that its decentralized applications (dApps) will now be available on the Samsung Galaxy Store. Samsung smartphones and tablet users will now be able to use Tron-based dApps. Specifically, Samsung smartphone and tab users will now be able to download these dApps from a specific section of the Galaxy Store.
Bitcoin bull Tim Draper back in 2018, made a public estimate that Bitcoin would reach $250,000 by the end of 2022 or 2023, and has doubled down on this as of today. He stated that he was “very confident” in the event happening in a recent interview.
A $30,000 proposal submitted by the group running Dash’s Japanese website has just received approval to continue their efforts to get the token relisted in Japan. According to an April 27 update on a DashNexus proposal, Yosuke Suda of Dash Japan has purportedly been working with the Dash Core Group to get DASH back in the hands of Japanese investors.
The United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has given the green light for the public Private Execution Network (PPEX), an alternative trading system for private securities and digital assets, to launch in the country. Documents have shown that the North Capital Private Securities, a broker-dealer that developed the new trading system, successfully completed the membership application from the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority (FINRA) earlier this year.
Digital asset manager Grayscale Investments bought about 50% of all newly mined ethereum so far this year. It now holds the equivalent of 1.1% of ETH in circulation, according to a post on Reddit. Grayscale operates 10 cryptocurrency investment products focused on institutional investors.
Ya’an, one of the many cities in China’s mountainous Sichuan province, a region that’s estimated to account for over 50 percent of Bitcoin network’s computing power, has recently issued a public guidance – likely in its first – to seize the “strategic opportunity of the blockchain sector” so that they can help consume the area’s excessive hydropower electricity. According to a local daily’s report on April 20, the government seeks to make the city a high-quality example for consuming excessive hydropower electricity and build itself into “an impactful blockchain industry hub” in the country.
Bitfinex, a well-known cryptocurrency exchange, has launched a social platform for community members to interact and share ideas.
The second largest bank in Japan will sign a deal with SBI Holdings to offer digital banking services available on smartphones. According to an April 27 article in the Nikkei newspaper, the Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group (SMFG) and SBI have launched the first steps towards a multimillion dollar agreement expected to conclude later this week, before Japan enters its Golden Week banking holidays.
If BTC doesn’t hit $250k, I’ll eat a raw egg
Oil producing countries: 5 strategies that could breathe new life into the oil price
On Sunday, OPEC + reached an important agreement to reduce the supply by 9.7 million bpd of oil, while further cuts are expected to come from other producers. The agreement has been called "historic" due to the large amount of oil the organization plans to remove from May, but the oil markets had a different perspective.
Oil markets were closed on Sunday when the announcement came in, and many markets were still closed on Easter Monday, but they did not increase when the deal became known. In fact, they fell later in the middle of the week, demonstrating the lack of confidence in the markets in the big announcement of production cuts last weekend.
Do the producing countries still have tricks up their sleeves to raise oil prices? Let's look at some possible strategies, including the most unlikely.
They are trying to restore market confidence in the oil producing countries by blaming the current leadership and starting a personnel rally. Russian President Vladimir Putin could replace his energy minister Alexander Novak, but there is no sign that he is disappointed with Novak.
Saudi Arabia's King Salman could blame his oil minister (a son of his), Prince Abdulaziz, who introduced the policy of overproduction and price cuts in early March. Likewise, the OPEC committee could blame the current OPEC general secretary Mohammed Barkindo and dismiss him.
If this is presented to the markets as a correction in leadership and politics, it could help raise prices a little and stabilize the situation. Saudi Arabia has so far been blamed for the current situation due to its decision in early March to increase production to 12 million bpd, so blaming and firing Prince Abdulaziz is part of the loss of confidence in Saudi Arabia for stable oil prices could restore.
A military crisis or conflict in an oil producing region could help. This move is not guaranteed to increase prices because the recent seizure and sabotage of tankers in the Persian Gulf region has not caused prices to rise significantly, but theoretically they could make oil more expensive.
Indeed, on Tuesday, a Chinese-owned tanker in the Gulf of Oman was reportedly hijacked by armed forces and headed for Iran on its way to the Jubail port in Saudi Arabia.
However, the incident was barely noticed by the markets as they were busy with other things and the ship appeared to be released a short time later. However, the incident should remind traders that the same political and military tensions persist as before the coronavirus disaster.
The major exporters (and possibly importers who want to buy in stock) could work together and push for the global storage capacity to increase drastically and quickly. Manufacturers could work with importers to facilitate the construction of new storage facilities, combined with cheap offers to fill them.
Countries like the USA, Russia, China, India and Saudi Arabia have the opportunity to do so. Building warehouse space, particularly in importing countries such as China and India, could help increase demand in May, June, and beyond, and dispel fears of a predicted oil storage crisis that is adding to oil prices.
The importing states would only do this if they received a very good supply of the oil, but it could be worthwhile for the producers to generate increasing global demand. It's not so much about making money right away, but about improving demand.
One or more major autocratic oil producing countries make sacrifices. A victim of one or more of the top producers could shock the markets and introduce higher prices if an additional 2 to 5 million barrels were saved for each participating country. This situation would have to be created by a country that is legally capable of centralizing cuts at the national level.
That would be countries like Saudi Arabia, Russia or Iraq. It is an unlikely scenario that would only arise out of desperation for a country that needs to see higher prices and demonstrate its own power over the markets.
But such a country would suffer while its rivals benefited, and nobody wants it. Given the weak market response to Sunday's cuts, this would be a risky move.
Note: This option corresponds to the situation in which Venezuela has been in recent years and has been forced to drastically reduce its production. While several producing countries will face budget problems in the coming months, there is no indication that any of them are at risk of an impending Venezuelan-style economic collapse.
Finally, the producing countries could push for the major consumer nations to end their shutdowns. These measures to curb the spread of the coronavirus have destroyed oil demand as billions of people have stopped commuting, working, producing and traveling.
This might go against the advice of some medical professionals and epidemiologists, but there are many experts that these producing countries could use to request a quick return to business
These are the options for the desperate producers. A month and a half ago, nobody expected prices to drop so low. If they don't recover soon, producers' problems will only get worse. Government spending will be cut, debt accumulated, and layoffs will increase. Otherwise they can only wait and pray.
Note: Here it goes to the page with the commodity futures prices, here to the oil price chart, here to the technical oil price overview page and here to the individual oil price contracts. All energy prices in the overview can be found here. You can exchange opinions, thoughts and knowledge in our oil price forum. You can find the most important economic events of the day in our economic calendar.
Buy Signal on Litecoin Paves Way For Astronomical Crypto Altseason
Litecoin has just flashed a buy signal on weekly timeframes, that could send the crypto market into an astronomical altseason. Here are the few factors paving the way for the next major altcoin boom.
Litecoin is the silver to Bitcoin as digital gold, and while both Bitcoin and the precious metal have been stealing the limelight for months now as store of values, Litecoin and silver could soon sparkle once again.
Litecoin, which often leads the crypto market in breaking out into powerful rallies, has just triggered a buy signal on the TD Sequential indicator on weekly timeframes on LTC/BTC price charts.
This signal has proven incredibly accurate in the past for other cryptocurrencies, recently calling for the top in Bitcoin, and the bottom in XRP, which surged just today.
Litecoin could be the next to explode against Bitcoin, and it could bring with it an enormous altcoin season.
The higher the timeframe the signal, the more likely it is to show results. A buy signal on weekly timeframes is significant. The last two times these weekly TD 9 buy signals appeared on LTC/BTC charts, was in December 2019, and before it in December 2018.
Both of those months acted as short term bottoms that took crypto assets out of the depths and to new highs.
These bursts in performance by Litecoin against Bitcoin, also kickstarted an alt season each time.
Altcoin seasons are extended periods of time when the alternative crypto assets greatly outperform Bitcoin. Oftentimes, this happens when Bitcoin is stagnant, and trading sideways, much like what is currently taking place.
Further adding credence to the theory that an alt season may soon be upon the crypto market, is the fact that BTC dominance has broken down from a long-term trendline, then reconfirmed it as support turned resistance, and began falling once again.
BTC dominance could trend lower towards the percentages seen at the peak of the crypto hype bubble, which would suggest that altcoins are soon going to soar compared to Bitcoin, and recoup the losses investors have suffered through over the last two years of a bear market.
Altcoins have long underperformed against Bitcoin, except for Chainlink, Tezos, and a handful of others. And even though Bitcoin’s halving is ahead, it could be altcoins time to shine.
However, any altcoin investors must be careful, because if Bitcoin suddenly explodes in one direction or another, volatility could crush altcoins and put a preemptive end to any altcoin rallies.
Author: Tony Spilotro
How Realistic Is $1 Million Bitcoin?
- Predictions of $1 million Bitcoin prices by 2025 have been prompted by the massive global quantitative easing programs underway in light of the coronavirus pandemic.
- Experts see Bitcoin’s approaching a stock-to-flow ratio similar to that of gold, suggesting that a surge in market capitalization is possible.
- Inflows into Grayscale’s Bitcoin and Ethereum trusts continue to indicate bullishness among institutional investors.
Massive global quantitative easing has reignited price predictions for $1 million Bitcoin. Even in light of the coronavirus pandemic, are these prices realistic?
Global Macro Investor just released a report outlining what the future holds for markets around the world.
“Gold can go up 3x to 5x in the next three to five years. Bitcoin, well that’s a different story. I think it can get to $1m in the same period,” said the report.
The argument is that Bitcoin’s market cap would grow from being a $200 billion asset class to a $10 trillion asset class, similar to how gold (including paper gold) grew from $15 trillion to $60 trillion over the same period.
At a current circulating supply of just over 18 million Bitcoin, the $10 trillion figure would actually have each Bitcoin worth just over $550,000. Still Raoul Pal’s outlook is remarkably bullish.
Social Capital CEO and former Facebook executive Chamath Palihapitiya also sees the potential for Bitcoin to hit seven figures. As reported early April by Forbes, Palihapitiya told Morgan Creek Digital’s Anthony Pompliano that he saw Bitcoin’s path after coronavirus stimulus as binary: it will either go to zero or millions.
Palihapitiya argues that the global economy is possibly headed for a period of extreme fiat currency debasement, in which case “the path dependence for Bitcoin is if it looks like [debasement] is likely, it will really emerge as a flight to safety.”
The former Facebook executive did paint a longer timeline for that to happen, saying that the process could take ten years. As the billionaire explained:
“If the probability was 1% that [Bitcoin] would be valuable, unfortunately, the probability is now probably like 5% or 10%. And there’s a real chance that by 2030 we don’t find a way to inflate our way out of this. The only way to break the back of inflation is essentially to create some quasi form of a gold standard, but it’ll be almost impossible to do that between governments and central banks. They’ll never agree on an instrument and they’ll never agree on an exchange [rate]. But then, bottoms up, people could decide to do it [with Bitcoin].”
The stock-to-flow (S2F) model, albeit controversial, has Bitcoin approaching the scarcity of gold after the forthcoming halving event, which is about two weeks away at press time.
The S2F model is a valuation metric used to measure scarcity. It is simply the ratio of the current supply of an asset divided by the annual rate of production of new supply. Silver’s stock-to-flow ratio, for example, is 22.
The measure’s application to Bitcoin was first proposed by investor PlanB as a way to estimate the long-term value of Bitcoin, which currently has a stock-to-flow ratio of 27—already greater than that of silver’s. Meanwhile, gold’s ratio is 62.
What this number means, using gold as an example, is that at current rates of extraction it would take 62 years to double the gold supply, making it extremely scarce. Using this scarcity model it is possible to try and predict future prices.
However, after the May 2020 halving, Bitcoin’s ratio will double to around 52, placing it much closer to gold in terms of scarcity. Based on the model, this would place Bitcoin’s projected price at around $55,000 as a result of the forthcoming halving.
Taking this one step further, if gold and Bitcoin are valued similarly as hedge assets, something a similar stock-to-flow ratio could give them, then theoretically, the two assets could have similar market caps. So if Bitcoin’s market cap were to soar to gold’s, it would be worth over half-a-million dollars. Including paper gold, that rises as high as $800,000.
Alternatively, one view put forth by analyst Philip Swift shows Bitcoin approaching $100,000 values as a result of the price and stock-to-flow ratios converging.
However, courtesy of new analysis by PlanB, a new S2F model has emerged, predicting Bitcoin prices hovering around the $288,000 levels from 2020 until its 4th halving.
Demand for Bitcoin, given its current supply, has it priced just under $8,000. Supply growth will be halved after mid-May, but total supply will continue growing. So the narrative really is demand-driven until the full impact of the issuance reduction sets in.
Grayscale’s seminal 2019 Investor Study found that around 36% of American investors were interested in Bitcoin as an investment. Almost all (83%) cited Bitcoin’s “potential for growth” as a reason it interested them as an investment. Its scarcity also resonated strongly.
Grayscale is interesting for another reason, as their quarterly reports paint a picture of the growing levels of institutional investor interest in Bitcoin. Their Q1 2020 quarterly report showed the strongest demand levels ever, with over $500 million in inflows into the fund.
Most of those inflows (79%) were from hedge funds and other institutional investors. Most of which, around $400 million, went into the company’s Bitcoin Trust fund. The remaining $100 million was poured into Grayscale’s Ethereum Trust product.
Grayscale’s quarterly reports are indicative of broader demand because the fund is a significant holder of digital assets. As of the end of the first quarter of this year, it held 1.7% of the circulating supply of Bitcoin. This means that 1.2% of the total digital asset market cap is entrusted with the company.
The company has seen a doubling of inflows into its Bitcoin product every quarter over the last year. While the graph below shows growth plateauing from the beginning of Q2, Q3, and Q4 of 2019 to the end of those periods, this is actually the result of caps from Grayscale.
The asset manager periodically ceases accepting new inflows when its funds are oversubscribed. So those flat periods do not represent a cessation of demand for its products, but an artificially imposed cap of its assets under management.
Over the past 12 months, cumulative inflows into Bitcoin via Grayscale doubled every quarter from around $100 million in Q2 2019, $200 million in Q3 2019, $400 million in Q4 2019, to $800 million by the end of March, 2020. The trend for institutional Bitcoin demand is clear.
Grayscale figures show a strong upward demand pressure among institutional investors. As infographics from Visual Capitalist suggest, globally derivatives have between $630 trillion to $1.2 quadrillion in notional value. If only a fraction of those funds were shifted from derivatives to digital assets, Bitcoin could enjoy a dramatic price surge. Institutional flight from other asset classes to digital assets will be required to push prices up toward the million dollar mark.
By the time Bitcoin reaches its fourth halving event, and assuming that will be four years from now, there will be 19,687,500 in circulation. Its S2F will have doubled again, surging beyond that of gold. If, by that time, Bitcoin cements itself as a haven asset then all bets are off.
While $1 million Bitcoin may seem far-fetched in 2020, current prices would have seemed equally as far-fetched as recently as 2016.
Nevertheless, all price predictions and projections should be taken with caution. The smallest error in the underlying assumptions at the beginning of these time frames can alter the final number dramatically.
Will we see $1 million Bitcoin by 2025? Nobody really knows. Some of the calculations above, however, suggest that it is entirely possible.
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Author: by Paul de Havilland
Libra and Ripple Find New Friends, Dash Fights In Japan + More News
Crypto Briefs is your daily, bite-sized digest of cryptocurrency and blockchain-related news – investigating the stories flying under the radar of today’s crypto news.
- Checkout.com, a global payment services provider, said it joined the Libra Association. “The Libra project holds the promise of increasing financial inclusion for billions of unbanked people, empowering them to participate in the digital economy and reducing disparities,” the company said.
- American economist and a former senior policy advisor to the International Monetary Fund, Barry Eichengreen, and Ganesh Viswanath-Natraj, Assistant Professor of Finance at Warwick Business School, said that, due to the relationship between Libra and the Federal Reserve, Libra adopted emergency protocols similar to those the US abandoned a century ago. Per a blog post, Eichengreen stated that emergency protections presented in the revised Libra white paper were similar to the clearinghouse certificates issued by bank groups in the US in the 19th century in response to bank runs and financial crises. It was to replace this unsatisfactory situation where not every dollar was as good as every other dollar that led to the establishment of the Federal Reserve in 1913.
- Siam Commercial Bank (SCB), a Thailand-based bank, today unveiled its global strategy for cross-border payments and the launch of Outward Remittance Service via SCB EASY developed in partnership with Ripple, the enterprise blockchain solution for global payments. SCB is now launching a new Outward Remittance Service via SCB EASY, powered by Ripple’s RippleNet, to its retail customers across Thailand.
- Samsung has added support for the dapps (decentralized apps) built on the Tron blockchain to the Samsung Galaxy Store. Per a tweet by the TRON Foundation, Tron is the first blockchain project to have a dedicated section in the Samsung Galaxy store, which will feature dapps like Blockchain Cuties, Super Player, Meerkat Mining, and Timeloop. Tron was already supported by Samsung’s Blockchain Keystore.
- Blockchain project Ontology (ONT) has partnered with global social creator platform OGQ. According to the press release, this will enable OGQ to leverage the Ontology blockchain to increase copyright protection for its content creators, and it will also allow users to purchase digital asset content using OEP-4 tokens.
- China’s Hunan Province has launched a “three-year blockchain plan,” reports the China Internet News. The province says that its plan involves launching more than 10 blockchain public service platforms, aiding 30,000 companies and building five blockchain industrial parks in the province. The initiative, say the authorities, will generate some USD 423 million.
- The operators of cryptocurrency dash (DASH) are pushing for the token’s re-listing at Japanese crypto exchanges. The token is currently on the blacklists of a number of major crypto exchanges such as Coincheck after a self-regulatory body ruled that all privacy coins, such as dash, as well as monero (XMR) and zcash (ZEC) were not suitable for listing – in a move likely aimed at pre-empting delisting requirements from government agencies. Per a Dash announcement, there is a “shared misunderstanding by Japanese regulators, their advisors and several exchanges that Dash’s blockchain is private, untraceable, and cannot be audited.”
- Binance-co-owned crypto derivatives exchange FTX will be expanding from the Asian into the North American market by launching a spot exchange in the US. According to the FTX.US website, it has been registered as a money services business with the Financial Crimes Enforcement Network and is applying to obtain state-level money transmitter licenses from multiple states.
- Boerse Stuttgart Digital Exchange (BSDEX) said that in addition to market and limit orders, investors can now also use stop orders: if bitcoin (BTC) price reaches the defined stop mark, an order is placed in the BSDEX order book – either with or without a limit.
- Decentralized finance startup dForce has stated that it will return the stolen, then returned c. USD 25 million in crypto to the affected users. Per a company tweet, over 90% of assets have been distributed to users in less than 24 hours, and 100% users have been made whole in the recovery. They promised more future actions to be disclosed shortly.
- The Russian parliamentary Committee on Education and Science’s deputy head has called on Russia and Azerbaijan to launch a central bank digital currency (CBDC) in response to China’s progress with its forthcoming digital yuan. Beijing is set to begin testing its token next month. But per media outlet Minval, committee deputy chief Boris Chernyshov stated that “Russia and Azerbaijan should not stand around and wait, because [cryptocurrencies and digital fiats] are the future, and we will all need to face up to it soon.”
- 57 companies, or some 70% of the crypto and blockchain startups that had completed the first stage of the application process ended up failing to obtain a Maltese financial services license, according to data provided by the Malta Financial Services Authority (MFSA). The regulator included a list of these companies it says are not licensed nor authorized by the MFSA to provide any Virtual Financial Assets or other financial services.
- The South Korean armed forces have unveiled the identity of a man believed to be Igiya, one of the three chief admins of the Telegram Nth Room sexual exploitation, rape, pedophilia and torture video ring, reports Kyunghyang Shinmun. The ring allowed would-be members to pay in cryptocurrency in order to gain access to private video rooms. Police have already charged the man, identified by the army as Private Lee Won-in, aged 19. However, the police had decided to keep Lee’s identity a secret due to the fact that he is still a teenager. But as Lee is currently serving his two-year military service and is thus subject to military jurisdiction, military law specifies that in cases of suspected human rights abuses, the identity of certain suspects can be made public. The military has also released a photo of Lee, who is yet to stand trial.
Author: By Sead FadilpašićTim Alper