John Bollinger Says Bitcoin (BTC) Moving into ‘Squeeze Territory’ as Oil Price Goes Negative
Bitcoin (BTC) holds steady above $6,900 despite oil plunging to negative prices, but trading legend John Bollinger predicts a major move
Trading guru John Bollinger says that Bitcoin (BTC) and altcoins are currently approaching a “squeeze territory.”
It means that it’s high time for traders to pay attention since another significant move might be just around the corner.
Bollinger is famous for coming up with the Bollinger Bands (BBs) trading indicator that helps to predict the price action of a certain asset based on its volatility.
When the bands are getting too close, they create a setup for the “Bollinger Bands Squeeze” pattern, which is characterized by a strong price move after a prolonged period of sideways trading.
Bitcoin has been range-bound for days, which means that traders are likely to see some fireworks in the short-term.
At the end of a historic day, WTI (the May contract) has closed at -$35.20 after plunging by a whopping -292.67 percent.
As reported by U.Today, the commodity is under pressure due to a double-whammy of oversupply and weak demand.
The BTC price has slipped to the $6,900 level, but both crypto and stock markets have managed to shrug off negative U.S. crude prices.
Author: Mon, 04/20/2020 – 19:09
So you received the Bitcoin ‘masturbation vid’ email — here’s what to do
Welcome to Hard Fork Basics, a collection of informative guides to keep you up to date with the personal finance and investment world. This one is Bitcoin-themed.
There’s a “sextortion” email scam going around that demands Bitcoin BTC to keep steamy videos of you masturbating to pornography off the internet. It’s fake. Relax.
It’s also very old. While there are many variants, recent reports show an email that suggests a crafty hacker has “placed malware on the porn website” that you enjoy, which allowed them to record your screen and webcam feed.
The email then requests $1,900 worth of Bitcoin or else your Messenger, Facebook, and email contacts will receive a video of you jerking (or jilling) it, placed artfully alongside your kinky content of choice — a shoddy attempt at blackmail.
It’s a preposterous premise, but the real hook is a recipients’ actual password, which is starred out in the screenshot below. Hard Fork reported on some of the first instances of the Bitcoin sextortion email in 2018.
Back then, fraudsters were warning their marks that a “magic pixel” had recorded their every move. More recently, emails have come with an embedded JPG image of the blackmail message in a bid to avoid spam detection.
Indeed, if you receive this email, it’s likely to reference a password that you might regularly use, or may have regularly used in the past. Don’t freak out: They probably found it in a PasteBin doc — not by hacking your machine.
It’s almost entirely likely that the phishers obtained your email and password from one of the thousands of data breaches that have occurred, and not by hacking your computer (or your porn website, for that matter).
Have I Been Pwned? is a handy tool to figure out where they might’ve found your password. Simply plug in your email address to see if this relates to you.
Bitcoin Abuse, a website that tracks these kinds of Bitcoin scams, has fielded almost 50,000 reports this year. April has seen a massive influx of submissions — over 41,000 — and while not all of them are specific to the sextortion scam, many are, and they’re coming in multiple languages.
As for the success of these horny phishers: It seems they randomly generate fresh Bitcoin addresses for each recipient, which makes tracking them significantly harder.
So, security researchers at Sophos advise you to do two things. First: Delete the email and move on.
The second is change the password referenced in the email, as it’s likely that other phishers also have access to it. Even if they’re old accounts, you should change them to protect your current ones.
Apart from that, it’s important to never send any money in response to any emails like these, Bitcoin or otherwise, and not to play into to the fraudsters’ hands by engaging any further.
They also emphasised that instructions in an email should not be followed “just because the message is insistent or because you’re frightened.”
In other words, do what this 84-year-old lady did when she was targeted by Bitcoin sextortionists: Ignore them, and eat a bagel.
Author: David Canellis
Bitcoin Volatility at 3-Month Low as Market Awaits Big Price Move
Bitcoin market volatility has hit three-month lows – marking a price squeeze that could soon pave the way for a big move on either side.
The spread between bitcoin’s Bollinger bands – volatility indicators placed two standard deviations above and below the 20-day moving price average – narrowed to $895 on Monday. That’s the lowest level since Jan. 6, when the spread was $636, according to Bitstamp data.
Bitcoin has spent a better part of the last two weeks trading the range of $6,450–$7,450, with the range further narrowing to $7,000–$7,300 since Thursday.
The tightening of Bollinger Bands is widely considered to be an advanced indicator of an impending big move.
“When it tightens, it is because we have been consistently trading in a narrower range for a prolonged period and we should see a breakout very soon,” said Chris Thomas, head of digital assets at Swissquote.
As can be seen, bitcoin’s price volatility has exploded following previous tight ranges in October 2019 and January 2020.
Other volatility indicators have also witnessed a sharp drop over the last few weeks. For example, the Bollinger bandwidth, which is calculated by dividing the gap between the bands by the 20-day moving average, is seen at 0.13 at press time, having risen from 0.11 to 0.90 (high volatility) in the first three weeks of March.
Historically, a reading below 0.10 has marked an end of price consolidation or low-volatility environment. So with the metric currently at 0.13, we might see bitcoin trade without clear directional bias for a few more days.
Meanwhile, the volatility situation in the bitcoin options market looks to have normalized, as one-month implied volatility is now hovering below its average level of 77 percent, according to data provided by crypto derivatives firm Skew.
Option traders typically buy options when volatility drops below the lifetime average and tend to sell when volatility reaches extreme highs.
One-month implied volatility – the option market’s view of how volatile the asset would be over a four-week period – spiked from 55 percent to 184 percent in the first half of March. That came as the coronavirus-led sell-off in the global equity markets translated into a liquidity crisis that saw investors sell everything from gold to bitcoin.
Meanwhile, the S&P 500, Wall Street’s benchmark index, crashed by 35 percent in the four weeks to March 24, pushing the volatility (VIX) index higher from 20 percent to 86 percent. As of Friday, the S&P was reporting over 25 percent gains from lows seen on March 24, while the VIX index was hovering around 41.
Bearish move ahead?
Uncertainty in both the stock and cryptocurrency markets has declined over the past couple of weeks, largely due to the Federal Reserve’s open-ended asset purchase program and the U.S. government’s massive fiscal stimulus worth trillions of dollars.
However, markets are not out of the woods yet because the number of coronavirus cases is still rising globally. The coronavirus death toll in the U.S. crossed 40,000 over the weekend with over 744,000 infections, raising doubts over the nation’s readiness to reopen its economy.
Further, oil prices crashed close to a two-decade low below $16 early Monday on concerns of high inventory buildup in the U.S. As a result, equity markets could come under pressure, pushing bitcoin lower.
Put simply, the low-volatility period could end with a downside move, more so as miner-led selling pressure for bitcoin is currently high, according to crypto asset analytics company Coin Metrics.
On the downside, major support is seen around $6,450, the lower end of the recent trading range.
Some observers may argue the cryptocurrency is set to undergo reward halving next month and the supply-cutting event could draw bids for the cryptocurrencies, yielding a big move on the higher side.
However, both bitcoin cash and bitcoin SV recently failed to rally on their respective halvings. Litecoin, too, crashed following its halving on Aug 5, 2019. As a result, bitcoin investors may not buy into the bullish halving narrative.
At press time, bitcoin is sidelined near $7,070 and the futures on the S&P 500 are reporting risk aversion with a 1.5 percent drop.
While a breakout above the 100-week average confirmed last week is painting a bullish picture, a sudden move lower cannot be ruled out, with the macro factors looking bearish, as noted above. Further, the weekly chart money flow index shows that selling pressure is currently stronger than buying pressure.
The bullish case would get a boost if prices rise above the recent high of $7,469, opening the doors to the 100-day average at $8,075.
Disclosure: The author currently holds no cryptocurrencies.
Author: William Foxley